TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> Composite Index 15/09/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 9月 15日

Composite Index 15/09/2009
As indicated by A, the FBM KLCI rebounded slightly, closing 4.11 points higher at 1207.47 points. Resistance for the KLCI remains at 1248 Fibonacci Retracement (FR) while the support is still at the 1200 psychological level followed by the 1169 FR.

As shown on the chart, the KLCI is still staying above the 14, 21, 31 EMA and therefore, the uptrend remains intact, until the KLCI should break below the 14, 21, 31 EMA. Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands Width expanded only 2%, therefore, the KLCI is consolidating now, until the Bollinger Bands Width should expand clearly. If the KLCI should remain above the Bollinger Middle Band when the Bollinger Bands re-expands, the KLCI is likely to resume its uptrend.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 12.1%, but still below the 40-day VMA level. This is typical as the KLCI is still consolidating; in other words, if volume should break above the 40-day VMA level when the KLCI regain its strength, it would be a clearer bullish signal.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic rebounded slightly, while successfully staying above the 70% level. Therefore, the short term movement of the KLCI is still bullish biased. If the Stochastic should break below 70% level, the short term bullish signal will come to an end.

The KLCI rebounded above the Bollinger Middle Band as well as the 14, 21, 31 EMA, and therefore, the longer term uptrend for the KLCI remains intact. If the Bollinger Bands Width should re-expands with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, the KLCI shall resume its uptrend movement. Otherwise, if the KLCI should break below the Bollinger Middle Band, the KLCI might have a risk of turning weak.
综合指数 2009年 9月 15日

如图中箭头A所示，富时隆综合指数稍微回弹，上扬4.11点，以1207.47点闭市。综指当前的阻力水平仍然处于1248点的费氏线，支持水平则落在1200点的心理支持水平及1169点的费氏线。

如图所示，综指目前依然处于14、21、31天加权移动平均线（EMA）以上，所以综指仍然维持在一个上扬的趋势，直到综指跌破此加权移动平均线为止。另一方面，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）打开的幅度减低至2%，所以综指目前属于一个调整巩固的格局，直到布林频带再度打开为止。若在布林频带再度打开时，综指仍然能处于布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）以上的话，综指将有望再度开始上扬。

如图箭头B所示，马股总成交量进一步增加12.1%，惟还是未能达到40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）的水平，这是综指横摆巩固的典型状态；换句话说，若综指开始上扬时，成交量必须上扬至40天平均值，综指上扬的趋势才能更显著。
如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）稍微回弹，成功守住70%以上，所以综指的短期走势仍然未确认转坏；通常若随机指标跌破70%，综指的短期涨势将宣告结束。
综指稍微回弹，成功的守住布林中频带及14、21、31天加权移动平均线（EMA），所以综指的走势仍然未确认转弱。接下来若综指能继续处于布林中频带以上，再配合布林频带打开，那综指将有望恢复之前的涨势；反之若综指跌破布林中频带的话，那综指将有开始转弱的风险。