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Monday, September 14, 2009

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> 综合指数 2009年 9月 14日 / Composite Index 14/09/2009

综合指数 2009年 9月 14日
在亚太区域股市下跌的带领下,富时隆综合指数一度上探至1212.70点后也跟随下滑,惟综指的跌幅相比之下来得低,综指按日下滑4.92点,以1203.36点闭市。综指当前的阻力水平仍然处于1248点的费氏线,支持水平则落在1200点的心理支持水平。
如图中箭头A所示,布林频带(Bollinger Bands)打开的幅度减少至4%,这表示综指继续的处于一个调整巩固的格局中。综指目前的调整第一个目标是布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band),这也是综指的动态支持线;若综指跌破布林中频带,综指上扬的趋势将宣告结束。
如图箭头B所示,马股总成交量稍微增加6%,但还是未能达到40天成交量移动平均线(VMA)的水平,这表示整体市场淡静,综指正处于一个调整巩固的格局。
随机指标(Stochastic)跟随综指回软,惟随机指标成功守住70%的水平,这显示综指的短期走势并未完全形成下跌的趋势。无论如何,若随机指标跌破70%时,布林频带正在收窄的话,那随机指标只显示综指有转弱的风险,并未能完全确认综指的趋势,因为当布林频带收窄时,任何的趋势将必须由布林频带这主要指标来确认。
由于缺乏本地利好的因素,综指再度被外围市场牵引,所幸的是综指跌幅有限,而且综指目前仍然获得布林中频带及14、21、31天加权移动平均线的扶持,所以综指目前只算是出现了技术调整。无论如何,若综指接下来跌破了布林中频带,那综指的后市将被看低一线。
Composite Index 14/09/2009
Despite touching an intra-day high of 1212.70 points, the KLCI ended lower, pulled by the weaker performance of the regional markets. The KLCI closed 4.92 points lower to 1203.36 points Resistance for the KLCI is at 1248 Fibonacci Retracement while the support is at 1200 psychological level.
As indicated by A, the Bollinger Bands Width expanded only 4%, suggesting that the KLCI is consolidating, and the first target of the consolidation is the Bollinger Middle Band, which is the current dynamic support for the KLCI. If the KLCI should break below the Bollinger Middle Band, it would be an end to the uptrend.
As indicated by B, total market volume increased 6%, but still below the 40-day VMA level, this suggests that the market participation is still low as the KLCI is consolidating.
As indicated by C, the Stochastic retreated as the KLCI ended lower. However, the Stochastic has not broken below the 70% level, this shows that the short term movement of the KLCI has not turned weak. Nevertheless, if the Stochastic should break below 70% level, it would be a signal suggesting an end to the short term bullish movement, but if the Bollinger Bands Width should contract, the KLCI is not forming a downtrend yet. This is because, formation of trend should be confirmed with the re-expansion signal of the Bollinger Bands.
The falling of the KLCI was lead by the weaker regional market performance, together with the lack of positive sentiment. Fortunately, the KLCI is still supported by the 14, 21, 31 EMA, and therefore, this is only a technical correction signal, and not an end of the uptrend, unless the KLCI should break below the Bollinger Middle Band.

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