TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> Composite Index 09/09/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 9月 09日

Composite Index 09/09/2009
The expansion rate of the Bollinger Bands Width is slowing down, thus the KLCI started to retreated, closing the day at 1196.46 points, downed 5.61 points ( refer to arrow A). Therefore, this suggests that the 1200 level is still the psychological resistance level for the KLCI, while the 1186 and 1163 Fibonacci Retracement (FR) are the support for the KLCI.
As shown on the chart, the KLCI begins its technical correction as the Bollinger Bands expansion slows down, and the first target of the technical correction is usually at the Bollinger Middle Band.

Therefore, the Bollinger Middle Band is now serving as the dynamic support for the KLCI. If the KLCI should remain above the Bollinger Middle Band, the bullish biased immediate outlook for the KLCI is still intact.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 18.1%, and as a result, volume is still below the 40-day VMA level. The relatively lower volume suggests that most investors are still on the sidelines, and therefore, the lower volume has failed to confirmed the recent KLCI bullish movement. Without sufficient market participation, the KLCI failed to break above the 1200 level successfully.

As circled at C, the Stochastic retreated after hitting 100%, suggesting that the KLCI short term movement was slightly over-heated, thus a technical correction is perfectly normal. Nevertheless, provided that the Stochastic is still above 70% level, the market movement for the short term is still bullish biased. In other words, if the Stochastic should break below 70% level, it would be an end to the KLCI short term uptrend.

In conclusion, the KLCI retreats as profit taking begins, and this is a typical technical correction signal. Provided that the KLCI could maintain above the Bollinger Middle Band, there is still a chance for the KLCI to resume its uptrend after this technical correction. However, if the KLCI should break below the Bollinger Middle Band during this technical correction, it would break the current short term uptrend.
综合指数 2009年 9月 09日
由于布林频带（Bollinger Bands）打开的幅度下降，所以富时综合指数在开市后遇阻，综指随后以1196.46点闭市，按日下滑5.61点（参考箭头A）。这也意味着综指跌破了1200点的心理支持水平，所以综指仍然未能成功突破1200点的阻力，综指当前的支持水平则落在1186点及1163点的费氏线。

如图所示，由于布林频带打开的幅度收窄，所以综指出现调整，而此调整的第一目标是布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）；这也表示布林中频带将是综指的动态支持线，只要综指一日在布林中频带上获得扶持的话，那综指将有再度上扬的机会。

如图中箭头B所示，成交量减少18.1%，所以成交量未能成功的达到40天成交量移动平均线（VMA），这显示综指的转强讯号未能完全获得成交量的支持，因为投资者是以选择观望者居多。在缺乏足够投资者的参与下，综指上扬遇到阻力而出现技术调整。

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）在到达100%后滑落，这是综指短期过热后出现技术调整的讯号，所以综指有短期走软的趋势；无论如何，只要随机指标能成功守住70%的水平，那综指的短期下跌只能算是技术调整而已。换句话说，接下来若随机指标跌破70%的水平，那综指的短期上扬趋势则有结束的风险了。

总的来说，综指上扬的趋势在套利活动下走软，这是典型的技术调整讯号，只要综指能在布林中频带上获得扶持而回弹，综指将有望在调整后再度出现上扬的趋势。不过接下来若综指跌破布林中频带的话，那综指的上扬趋势将有提前结束的可能了。