ZLBT Chats

Tuesday, September 8, 2009

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> 综合指数 2009年 9月 08日 / Composite Index 08/09/2009

综合指数 2009年 9月 08日
如图中箭头A所示,在富时综合指数成功维持在布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band)以上的同时,布林频带(Bollinger Bands)进一步打开46%,所以综指上扬11.68点,以1202.07点闭市。无论如何,虽然综指稍微突破了1200点的心理阻力水平,不过在技术上由于1200点是关键阻力水平,这表示综指仍然未完全摆脱此阻力水平,所以综指接下来必须继续收高于1200点,综指才能确认成功的突破了此阻力关口。

14、21、31天加权移动平均线(EMA)跟随大势上扬,这是综指长期的支持线,所以这成为了综指一道重要的支持线,只要综指一日维持在14、21、31天加权移动平均线以上,综指将继续维持着上扬的趋势。

如图中箭头B所示,成交量增加11.6%,越来越接近40天成交量移动平均线(VMA),惟还是未达到40天的平均值,这显示投资者开始增加,不过若要综指持续转强的话,成交量还是得继续增加至40天平均值或以上。
如C圈所示,平均乖离的振荡指标(MACD Histogram)上扬至零轴,有突破进入正值区域的迹象。若振荡指标接下来在正值区域上扬,这表示综指的短期走势继续转强,直到振荡指标形成一个圆(Rounding Top)为止。

总的来说,布林频带继续打开,所以综指进一步的上扬,一般上综指将有望继续维持目前的涨势,直到布林频带打开的幅度开始减低或收窄为止。另一方面,综指正面对1200点的心理水平考验,所以综指接下来必须在此水平获得扶持,那综指才有望上探更高的水平。
Composite Index 08/09/2009
As indicated by A, the FBM KLCI remains above the Bollinger Middle Band and the Bollinger Bands Width also expanded 46%, and therefore, the KLCI gained another 11.68 points, closing the day at 1202.07 points. Despite the KLCI managed to close slightly above the 1200 level, the current resistance remains at 1200 psychological level, unless the KLCI could sustain above the 1200 level in the coming days.

The 14, 21, 31 EMA is still supporting the KLCI, and therefore, the KLCI uptrend remains intact, and the 14, 21, 31 EMA shall continue serving as the dynamic support for the KLCI. In other words, provided that the KLCI is supported by this dynamic support, the outlook for the KLCI is still positive.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 11.6%, while getting closer to the 40-day VMA level. In short, volume above the 40-day VMA level is imperative if the KLCI should maintain its healthy uptrend.

As circled at C, the MACD histogram is testing the zero level, and it is likely to break into the positive region. This suggests that the KLCI is still gaining strength until the MACD histogram should form a Rounding Top.

With the Bollinger Bands Width still expanding, the bullish biased movement of the KLCI is expected to continue until the Bollinger Bands Width should contract. Meanwhile, the 1200 resistance is still a hurdle for the KLCI and if the KLCI should successfully break above this important resistance level, more upside room is likely for the KLCI.

No comments:

Post a Comment