TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> 综合指数 2009年 9月 02日 / Composite Index 02/09/2009

综合指数 2009年 9月 02日
虽然美国道指下挫使到区域股市纷纷下跌，不过富时综合指数只微跌3.27点，以1168.01点闭市（参考箭头A）。综指当前的支持水平依然落在1163点的费氏线，阻力水平则是1186点的费氏线，所以若综指接下来跌破1163点的话，综指的后市将看低一线。

如图所示，综指稍微跌破了布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band），这使到综指失去了这重要的动态支持线；换句话说，短期内综指必须上扬突破布林中频带，否则在布林频带（Bollinger Bands）开始打开时，综指仍然处于布林中频带以下的话，综指将形成一个下跌的趋势。

如图中箭头B所示，马股成交量稍微回弹，惟还是未能达到40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）的水平，这是因为综指继续横摆巩固，所以造成成交量继续低迷；另一方面，技术上成交量低于40天平均值也意味着综指有转弱的风险。

随机指标（Stochastic）未能突破70%的水平，所以综指的短期走势还是未能转为上扬（参考C圈）。通常随机指标是必须上扬突破70%，综指的短期走势才能有望转强。

基本上，综指依然处于横摆巩固的格局，不过由于综指稍微跌破了布林中频带，而布林频带则停止了收窄，这表示综指有结束调整巩固的迹象，惟综指低于布林中频带暗示综指有进一步转弱的风险。换句话说，接下来若布林频带开始打开，而综指未能及时上扬突破布林中频带，综指将有开始下跌的风险。
Composite Index 02/09/2009
Despite the overnight sharp fall of the Dow, causing the regional bourses to close significant lower, the KLCI loss only a marginal 3.27 pt, to close at 1168.01 pt (Refer to A). The current support of the KLCI remains at 1163 Fibonacci Retracement (FR), while the resistance at 1186 pt is unchanged.

As shown in the chart above, the KLCI closed slightly below the Bollinger Middle Band; therefore, the KLCI is losing its Dynamic Support Line; in other words, if the KLCI is unable to break above the Bollinger Middle Band, the KLCI will form a downtrend when the Bollinger Bands started to expand.

As indicated by arrow B, the volume traded slightly rebounded, but it is still way below the 40 days Volume Moving Average (VMA), this is mainly due to the KLCI prolonged consolidation. Technically, volume traded below 40 days average also means that overall the KLCI is weak.

As circled at C, the Stochastic failed to break above the 70%; therefore, the KLCI short term trend failed to turn into an uptrend. Normally, the Stochastic has to break above the 70%, in order for the KLCI to form an up trend.

Basically, the KLCI continue to consolidate, but with the KLCI breaking below the Bollinger Middle Band as the Bolling Bands stopped narrowing, this is an early sign suggesting that the consolidation might come to an end, and the KLCI below the Bollinger Middle Band is a hint that the immediate outlook for the KLCI is on the weaker side. In other words, should the Bollinger Bands started to expand, with the KLCI below the Bollinger Middle Band, the KLCI would, potentially, form a new downtrend.