如图中箭头A所示，富时综合以1178.74点闭市，上扬5.08点，惟布林频带（Bollinger Bands）却进一步收窄23%，所以虽然综指已经处于布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）以上了，综指还是未能确认上扬的讯号。一般上，综指必须等到布林频带明显的打开，综指近期酝酿的走势才会浮现；布林频带收的非常窄也表示目前综指有结束横摆巩固的迹象；无论如何，综指必须在布林频带打开时，仍然维持在布林中频带以上，综指才能形成一个上扬的趋势，反之若综指跌破布林中频带，综指则有转弱的风险。
如图中箭头B所示，马股成交量微扬3.5%，所以成交量仍然未能达到40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）的水平；这表示多数投资者依然选择退居场外，等待市场进一步的明朗化。
如图C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）继续的70%以上扬升，这表示综指的短期走势继续的转强，只等待布林频带打开来确认此短期的上扬讯号。综指目前始终受到14、21、31天加权移动平均线（EMA）的扶持，所以综指的长期走势仍然未转坏，这表示综指的短期走势也有望转强。目前综指已接近一个临界点（Breaking Point），只等待布林频带打开的讯号，就能结束横摆巩固已久的走势。接下来综指必须保持在布林中频带以上，那综指才能成功的出现上扬的趋势；否则综指将再度形成下跌的格局。
Composite Index 04/09/2009
As indicated by A, the FBM KLCI ended 5.08 points higher on Friday to close at 1178.74 points; however, the Bollinger Bands Width contracted 23%. Despite the KLCI returned to above the Bollinger Middle Band, the KLCI has not started an uptrend for the Bollinger Bands Width is still contracting.
Generally, the Bollinger Bands Width has to re-expand in order to suggest an beginning of a new trend, and contraction of the Bollinger Bands Width suggests that the KLCI is still consolidating while preparing for a new movement. If the Bollinger Bands Width should re-expands with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, it would be a bullish movement signal; on the other hand, if the Bollinger Bands Width should re-expand with the KLCI below the Bollinger Middle Band, it would be a bearish biased movement signal.
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As indicated by B, total market volume traded only increased 3.5%, and therefore, it is still below the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the overall market participation is still low, as investors are still staying on the sidelines while waiting for fresh leads.
As circled at C, the Stochastic is still above 70% level, which is the short term bullish territory. Therefore, the short term movement of the KLCI is on the positive side while waiting for the confirmation of the bullish Bollinger Bands signal.
With the support of the 14, 21, 31 EMA long term uptrend dynamic support, the uptrend for the KLCI is still intact. Currently, the KLCI is at its breaking point to continue its uptrend, while waiting for the re-expansion of the Bollinger Bands Width, and of course, the KLCI has to stay above the Bollinger Middle Band when the Bollinger Bands Width re-expands, or else, there is a risk of forming a downtrend.
Composite Index 04/09/2009
As indicated by A, the FBM KLCI ended 5.08 points higher on Friday to close at 1178.74 points; however, the Bollinger Bands Width contracted 23%. Despite the KLCI returned to above the Bollinger Middle Band, the KLCI has not started an uptrend for the Bollinger Bands Width is still contracting.
Generally, the Bollinger Bands Width has to re-expand in order to suggest an beginning of a new trend, and contraction of the Bollinger Bands Width suggests that the KLCI is still consolidating while preparing for a new movement. If the Bollinger Bands Width should re-expands with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, it would be a bullish movement signal; on the other hand, if the Bollinger Bands Width should re-expand with the KLCI below the Bollinger Middle Band, it would be a bearish biased movement signal.
.jpg)
As indicated by B, total market volume traded only increased 3.5%, and therefore, it is still below the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the overall market participation is still low, as investors are still staying on the sidelines while waiting for fresh leads.As circled at C, the Stochastic is still above 70% level, which is the short term bullish territory. Therefore, the short term movement of the KLCI is on the positive side while waiting for the confirmation of the bullish Bollinger Bands signal.
With the support of the 14, 21, 31 EMA long term uptrend dynamic support, the uptrend for the KLCI is still intact. Currently, the KLCI is at its breaking point to continue its uptrend, while waiting for the re-expansion of the Bollinger Bands Width, and of course, the KLCI has to stay above the Bollinger Middle Band when the Bollinger Bands Width re-expands, or else, there is a risk of forming a downtrend.
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