TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> Composite Index 01/09/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 9月 01日

Composite Index 01/09/2009

The Bollinger Bands contracted another 29%, indicating that the KLCI is still in a correction and consolidation stage (Refer to A), and therefore, the KLCI lost another 2.99 pt, to close at 1171.28 pt. The KLCI support level fall at 1163 pt Fibonacci Retracement (FR), while the resistance remains at 1186 pt.

As shown in the chart above, the KLCI was precisely support at Bollinger Middle Band, and therefore, the Bollinger Middle Band remains as the Dynamic Support Line for the KLCI. Actually, it is very important that the KLCI is supported by the Bollinger Middle Band; this is because if the Bollinger Band was to expand subsequently, with the KLCI below the Bollinger Middle Band, KLCI will form a downtrend.

As indicated by B, volume traded declined 21.2%, and continue to trade below the 40 days Volume Moving Average (VMA), this is due to the KLCI remain in consolidation; in other words, should the KLCI continue to consolidate, the volume traded will continue to stay below the 40 days VMA.

The Relative Strength Indicator keep losing strength below the 50%; therefore, the mid term trend of the KLCI remain weak; should the RSI break below 30%, the KLCI will be on a mid term down trend, and the mid term downtrend is expected to continue until the RSI is able to rebound and break above 30%.

Technically, the narrowing Bollinger Bands confirmed that the KLCI remains in consolidation, and no formation of new trend is sighted yet. The KLCI is due to start a new trend when the Bollinger Bands stopped narrowing and started to expand, and the new trend will be determined by the relative position of the KLCI against the Bollinger Middle Band.

综合指数 2009年 9月 01日

如图中箭头A所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）进一步收窄29%，这显示富时综合指数继续的处于调整巩固的格局，所以综指微跌2.99点，以1171.28点闭市。综指当前的支持水平落在1163点的费氏线，阻力水平则是1186点的费氏线。

如图所示，综指精确的在布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Bands）上获得扶持，所以布林中频带仍然是综指当前的动态支持线。综指是否能在布林中频带上获得扶持有着决定性的作用，因为若综指跌破布林中频带，而布林频带则开始打开的话，综指将形成一个下跌的趋势。

如图中箭头B所示，马股成交量下跌21.2%，继续的低于40天成交量移动平均线（VMA），这是整体市场走势维持在横摆巩固的现象；换句话说，若综指持续的横摆或布林频带一直收窄，市场的成交量将继续维持在低于40天平均值的水平。

胜图强弱指标继续在50%以下的水平下滑，所以综指的中期走势依然属于疲弱；接下来若胜图强弱指标跌破30%的话，综指的中期走势将开始转向下跌，直到胜图强弱指标再度上扬突破30%为止。

总的来说，布林频带继续收窄显示综指依然维持在横摆巩固的格局，所以并未发出任何明显的走势。综指目前正等待布林频带再度打开，届时综指将开始一个新的趋势，而新趋势的方向将取决于综指处于布林中频带的相应位置。