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Thursday, March 24, 2011

WALL STREET >>> Energy, Materials Lead Mid-session Rebound

DJIA Adds 67pts to close a Bear Opening
Stocks started the session on a relatively sour note today, as the Street digested news of radioactive water and a rebuilding estimate of more than $300 billion in Japan. In addition, the Commerce Department said new-home sales unexpectedly fell to a record low in February, adding fuel to the bears' early fire. However, the major market indexes performed a virtual about-face around midday, with energy and material stocks blazing the trail into the black as intensified fighting in the Middle East and North Africa – as well as news of fatal rocket and suicide-bomber attacks in Israel – exacerbated fears of significant supply disruptions. Elsewhere, Boeing (BA) waxed optimistic on its Japanese suppliers and said it's considering a dividend hike next year, further stoking the bulls' afternoon flames. Against this backdrop, crude oil futures finished at their loftiest level since September 2008, safety seekers sent gold futures to a record high, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) turned an early retreat into a healthy 0.6% gain.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA – 12,086.02) was down more than 40 points in early trading, but eventually reversed course to finish 67.4 points, or 0.6%, higher. By the close, only seven of the Dow's 30 blue chips ended lower, with Bank of America (BAC) pacing the laggards after the Federal Reserve nixed its proposed dividend hike. Meanwhile, Alcoa (AA) led the 23 advancing blue chips with a gain of more than 3%. Thanks to today's mid-session turnaround, the Dow is now on pace to end the week back atop its 10-week moving average.

The S&P 500 Index (SPX – 1,297.54) also turned higher around midday, but ran into a wall in the round-number 1,300 level. Nevertheless, the broad-market barometer settled with a respectable gain of 3.8 points, or 0.3%. In similar fashion, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP – 2,698.30) gained ground in afternoon trading, but lost some steam in the 2,700 region. By the close, the COMP added 14.4 points, or 0.5%.

Crude Soars To 29-month High
Oil futures continued to climb today, ending at their highest level since September 2008. Fueling black gold was escalating tension in the Middle East and North Africa, where fighting in Libya, Syria, and Yemen exacerbated fears of supply disruptions. Furthermore, news of Palestinian rockets hitting two cities in Israel – as well as a fatal bomb in Jerusalem – added fuel to oil's fire, as did a steeper-than-expected drop in domestic crude stockpiles. Against this backdrop, May-dated crude futures advanced $0.78, or 0.7%, to end at a 29-month peak of $105.75 per barrel.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Dow Jones Industrial Average
The Dow closed higher on Wednesday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,037 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the rally off last week's low, this month's high crossing at 12,283 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 11,924 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
First resistance is today's high crossing at 12,081.
Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 12,283.
First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 11,924.
Second support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 11,555.
HAPPY TRADING

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