TECHNICAL ANALYSIS : 综合指数 2011年03月09日 / FBMKLCI 09/03/2011

综合指数 2011年 03月 09日
富时大马综合指数周三上探1525点的费氏阻力线，惟精确的在1525点费氏线遇阻，按日上扬6.03点或0.4%，以1523.69点挂收。1525点费氏线仍然是综指当前的阻力水平，支持水平则是1513点的费氏线及箭头A所示的14、21、31天综合加权移动平均线（Exponential Moving Average – EMA）的动态支持线。

另一方面，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）打开9%，同时综指继续处于布林中频带以上。接下来若布林频带能继续打开，而综指仍然维持在布林中频带以上的话，那综指后市有望看高一线。

虽然布林频带当前显示着综指有望转强的讯号，不过如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量仍然处于40天的平均线以下，尽管周三的成交量增加28.49%。这表示马股目前的交投还是处于淡静的，而市场需要足够的承接力方可上扬突破阻力水平而转强。无论如何，接下来若成交量能继续增加并且高于40天的VMA，那将有助于综指转强.

如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）继续维持在70%水平以上，这是综指短期强势区域里。这表示综指目前短期走势还是偏强的，直到随机指标跌破70%水平为止，届时才是综指短期技术调整的开始。

总的来说，综指自1474点开始反弹以来，成功的重返布林中频带及14、21、31天EMA以上。这都是综指转强之前必须突破的关键指标，而这对于综指日后转强有利。目前只欠的就是足够的成交量。以技术而言，若成交量保持低迷的话，那综指将比较有可能延长横摆的盘整格局。

FBM KLCI 09 March 2011
On Wednesday, the KLCI tested the 1525 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement again, but failed to break above this resistance. As indicated by A, the 14, 21, 31 EMA is still the support for the KLCI together with the 1513 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement.

Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands expanded 9%, with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, and this suggests that the immediate technical outlook for the KLCI is on the positive side.

Although the immediate technical outlook for the KLCI is positive, total market volume remains low. As indicated by B, total market volume stays below the 40-day Volume Moving Average, and this suggests that the market participation is still insufficient. If the volume should remain low, the KLCI is likely to prolong its sideways consolidation.

As circled at C, the Stochastic remain above 70%, in the short term bullish territory. This suggests that the short term movement of the KLCI is still positive, until the Stochastic should break below 70%.

In conclusion, since rebounding from the 1474 level, the KLCI has taken out the Bollinger Middle Band as well as the 14, 21, 31 EMA resistance. This has helped the KLCI regaining its position in the position territory. However, the lack of market participation is still a major set back for the KLCI.

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