TECHNICAL ANALYSIS : 综合指数 2011年03月16日 / FBMKLCI 16/03/2011

综合指数 2011年 03月 16日
如图中箭头A所示，富时大马综合指数（综指）周三继续获得1474～1480点支持水平的扶持，按日回弹8.30点或0.56%。因此综指暂时避开形成跌势。不过，由于综指仍然处于14、21、31天EMA动态阻力线以下，所以综指当前的走势多半是疲弱的。

另一方面，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）继续打开5%，而综指却仍然处于布林中频带以下，这表示综指当前仍然有偏向于下跌的讯号，惟综指获得1480点支持水平的扶持。

如图中箭头B所示，尽管综指反弹，马股总成交量却减少35.87%，继续处于40天的成交量平均线（VMA）以下，这表示马股当前的交投跌却是淡静的，再加上投资者继续提日本核电厂的危机所担忧，因此暂时避开股市。以技术而言，若马股成交量继续偏低，那综指（或马股整体上）将难以转强。

如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）周三回弹，并稍微上扬突破30%水平。接下来若随机指标能上扬突破30%水平，那便是综指摆脱短期弱势的讯号。相反地，要是随机指标再次下滑，那表示综指短期的走势仍然显得乏力。

总的来说，综指在1474～1480点支持水平获得扶持，因此偏弱的走势还未进一步恶化成跌势。无论如何，14、21、31天EMA的动态阻力线仍然是综指转强的关键。换句话说，只要综指一日在动态阻力线遇阻，那走势将还是偏弱的。

FBM KLCI 16 March 2011
As indicated by A, the FBM KLCI managed to stay above its support of 1474~1480, and rebounded 8.30 points or 0.56% on Wednesday. However, the technical outlook for the KLCI remains weak as the KLCI is still being resisted by the 14, 21, 31 EMA dynamic resistance.

Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands expanded 5%, with the KLCI below the Bollinger Middle Band, thus the immediate technical outlook for the KLCI is negative.

As indicated by B, total market volume fell 35.87%, with volume below the 40-day Volume Moving Average. This suggests that the market is indeed quiet, coupled with the worries of the nuclear meltdown in Japan, it seems like investors are reluctant to take up new position at this moment. In short, without sufficient inflow of capital, the market is less likely to regain its strength.

As circled at C, the Stochastic rebounded and now testing 30%. If the Stochastic could break away from the 30% level, it would break away from the short term bearish territory.
In conclusion, the technical outlook for the KLCI remains weak despite the support at 1474~1480

HAPPY TRADING