TECHNICAL ANALYSIS : 综合指数 2011年03月14日 / FBMKLCI 14/03/2011

综合指数 2011年 03月 14日
如图中箭头A所示，富时大马综合指数一度下跌至1480.53点的最低点，惟在接近1474点费氏支持线时获得了扶持，使到综指回弹，按日只微跌0.27点或0.02%。图中所示的14、21、31天综合加权移动平均线（Exponential Moving Average – EMA）仍然是综指当前的动态阻力线，支持水平则继续是1474点的费氏线。

另一方面，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）收窄6%，这表示综指当前仍然处于盘整格局中。不过，由于综指已经处于布林中频带以下，所以接下来若布林频带重新打开时综指仍然在布林中频带以下的话，那综指将有再次下跌的风险

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量减少21.35%，明显的处于40天的成交量平均线（VMA）以下。这除了表示投资者保持场外观望以外，也暗示了投资者对马股目前的信心还未完全恢复。简单来说，若马股交投继续淡静的话，那综指将难以转强。

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）自上周五跌破50%水平后，周一继续的下滑，惟还未跌破30%水平。因此随机指标暂时还未发出综指短期转弱的讯号。要是随机指标跌破30%水平，那便是综指短期看淡的讯号。

总的来说，近日来马股的投资者已经处于谨慎态度，再加上目前日本灾情及担心核电厂危机的担忧，使到许多投资者避开股市。因此在缺乏承接力的当前格局来说，综指将继续处于横摆或偏弱的走势。
 

FBM KLCI 14 March 2011
As indicated by A, after breaking below the 14, 21, 31 EMA on Friday, the KLCI had its intra-day low touching 1480.53 points on Monday, before rebounding to close at 1495.35 points. The KLCI fell 0.27 of a point or 0.02%. The 14, 21, 31 EMA is now serving as the dynamic resistance to the KLCI and the immediate support for the KLCI is at 1474.

Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands contracted 6%, and this suggests that the KLCI is still consolidating. However, with the KLCI below the Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate technical outlook is on the negative side.

As indicated by B, total market volume fell 21.35%, with volume below the 40-day Volume Moving Average. This suggests that the market is indeed quiet, as investors shun the equity market. In short, without sufficient market participation, the KLCI is less likely to regain its strength.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic ended lower, after breaking below 50% last Friday. If the Stochastic should break below 30%, it would have entered the short term bearish territory, and it will suggest that the short term movement of the KLCI is going to be weak.

In short, the aftermath of the Tsunami together with the worry of nuclear meltdown in Japan, has further dampened the weakening market sentiment, and with such low participation from investors, the KLCI is likely to stay in its consolidation mood with weakness.

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