TECHNICAL ANALYSIS : 综合指数 2011年03月23日 / FBMKLCI 23/03/2011

综合指数 2011年 03月 23日

如图中箭头A所示，富时大马综合指数（综指）周三在14、21、31天综合加权移动平均线（Exponential Moving Average - EMA）左右徘徊，同时再次试探1513点的费氏阻力线，按日微扬2.87点或0.19%。综指持水平依然是1498点或1500点心理支持水平。

另一方面，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）至今还未明显的打开，这表示综指目前走势还未明朗，综指还未完全摆脱盘整格局，直到布林频带重新打开为止。

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量周三下跌9.76%，因此目前仍然处于40天的成交量平均线（VMA）以下。这再次的显示了马股目前交投淡静，而投资者多数保持场外观望，等待走势明朗化。一般上若大势成交量继续处于低迷的话，那综指暂时将难以转强.

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）稍微上扬突破70%水平，进入了短期强势区域里。接下来若随机指标能继续维持在70%水平以上，那综指短期的走势有望继续改善。

总的来说，综指自1480点反弹以来，目前继续试探14、21、31天EMA及1513点的阻力水平。要是综指能稳守在14、21、31天EMA以上，再加上成交量上扬突破40天的VMA，那综指有望摆脱偏弱的格局而转强。无论如何，以目前的走势来看，综指仍然有形成较低高峰（Lower-high）的可能。

FBM KLCI 23 March 2011As indicated by A, the FBM KLCI was trading at a narrow range around the 14, 21, 31 EMA, and attempted to test the 1513 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement again, gaining 2.87 points or 0.19%. The 14, 21 ,31 EMA is still the dynamic resistance to the KLCI while the support is at 1498 or 1500 psychological support.

Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands is still not expanding, thus it is not showing any signal for the FBMACE, except suggesting that the KLCI is basically still consolidating.

As indicated by B, total market volume fell 9.76%, with volume below the 40-day Volume Moving Average. This shows that the market is still relatively quiet and the market sentiment as a whole is still at cautious.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic breaks above 70% by margin on Wednesday, entering the short term bullish territory. If the Stochastic could stay above 70%, the short term movement of the KLCI is likely to be positive.

In conclusion, since the rebound from 1480 support, the KLCI is testing the 14, 21, 31 EMA as well as the 1513 resistance. If the KLCI could stay firmly above the 14, 21, 31 EMA, together with the increased of volume, (above the 40-day Volume Moving Average), the KLCI would have a better chance to break away from this weak consolidation. But until then, there is still a chance for the KLCI in forming a Lower-high.

HAPPY TRADING