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Friday, March 18, 2011

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS : 综合指数 2011年03月18日 / FBMKLCI 18/03/2011

综合指数 2011年 03月 18日

如图所示,富时大马综合指数在1480点支持水平获得扶持后,周五反弹,不过却在14、21、31天综合加权移动平均线(Exponential Moving Average – EMA)的动态阻力线遇阻。若综指能完全突破动态阻力线,那将有望摆脱当前偏弱的格局。
另一方面,布林频带(Bollinger Bands)只打开1%,这表示综指目前的走势仍然不明朗。无论如何,综指当前也正要试探布林中频带。要是综指能上扬突破此水平,那将有助于日后走势改善。
如图中箭头B所示,马股总成交量周五只增加7.23%,目前仍然处于40天的成交量平均线(VMA)以下。这表示市场当前的交投仍然是淡静,而承接力仍然是不足,因此综指未获得转强的最重要条件。
如图中C圈所示,随机指标(Stochastic)上扬突破了50%水平,这确认了综指摆脱了短期弱势的格局。接下来若随机指标能上扬突破70%水平,那便是综指短期转强的讯号。当然,这必须获得成交量明显增加的确认。

总的来说,综指继续获得1480点的扶持,所以有望展延目前横摆的盘整格局,避开形成跌势。如今综指正要试探14、21、31天EMA的动态阻力线,这也是综指摆脱偏弱格局的关键。
FBM KLCI 18 March 2011
As shown on the chart above, the KLCI rebounded on Friday after being supported by the 1480 support. However, the KLCI is precisely resisted by the 14, 21, 31 EMA dynamic resistance, and therefore, the technical outlook for the KLCI is still on the negative side.

Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands expanded only 1%, and this suggests that the KLCI movement is still unclear. Nevertheless, the KLCI is also testing the Bollinger Middle Band right now.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 7.23%, but still far below the 40-day Volume Moving Average. Market is undoubtedly quiet, and the low inflow of fresh capital is unlikely to lift the KLCI or the market sentiment as a whole.

As circled at C, the Stochastic breaks above 50%, and this suggests that the KLCI has broken away from the short term bearish territory. If the Stochastic should break above 70%, it would be a short term bullish signal for the KLCI.

In short, the support of 1480 helps the KLCI is prolong its consolidation, thus reducing the risk of forming a downtrend right now. However, with the KLCI still below the 14, 21, 31 EMA, the technical outlook is still weak.
 
HAPPY WEEKEND

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