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Tuesday, March 15, 2011

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS : 综合指数 2011年03月15日 / FBMKLCI 15/03/2011

综合指数 2011年 03月 15日
日本核电厂危机继续对全球股市带来冲击,富时大马综合指数周二继续受到影响,惟依然在1474~1480点的支持水平获得扶持(参考图中箭头A)。因此综指支持水平仍然是1474~1480点,阻力水平则是14、21、31天综合加权移动平均线(Exponential Moving Average – EMA)的动态阻力线及1513点。

另一方面,布林频带(Bollinger Bands)周而打开了9%,加上综指继续处于布林中频带以下,因此目前的布林频带显示着综指有可能转弱的讯号。接下来若布林频带继续打开的话,而综指依然处于布林中频带以下,那将增加综指转弱的风险.

如图中箭头B所示,马股总成交量增加81%,不过却还是处于40天的成交量平均线(VMA)以下 。这表示马股整体上的交投还是偏低的。另一方面,马股成交量虽然增加,但是全日下跌的股项却高达812只(上升股仅仅126只)。这意味着马股当前的卖压仍然比购兴强大。

如图中箭头C所示,随机指标(Stochastic)跌破了30%水平,进入了短期弱势区域里。以技术而言,接下来若随机指标继续处于30%水平以下,那综指短期的走势将继续看低一线。

总的来说,综指周二下跌的幅度虽然与亚太区域股市相比之下显得不严重,不过却仍然在14、21、31天EMA动态阻力线及布林中频带以下遇阻,因此整体上的走势还是偏弱的。要是综指失守1474点的支持水平,那将会创下将近半年的新低。

FBM KLCI 15 March 2011
Situation of the nuclear power plant meltdown continue to dampen the market condition across Asia, and Malaysian market is no exception. However, as indicated by A, the KLCI managed to stay above the 1474~1480 support. The 14, 21, 31 EMA still serving as the dynamic resistance to the KLCI, and the other resistance is at 1513.

Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands expanded 9%, with the KLCI below the Bollinger Middle Band. Therefore, the immediate technical outlook for the KLCI is still on the negative side.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 81%, but volume is still below the 40-day Volume Moving Average. Although volume increased 81%, there were 812 counters end on red, while only 126 gainers. Therefore, the increased of volume suggests that the selling pressure is still dominant.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic fell below 30%, entering the short term bearish territory. Technically, as long as the Stochastic should stay below 30%, the short term movement for the KLCI is likely to be weak.

In conclusion, the sell down of the KLCI, by comparing to most Asian markets, was considered mild, but this does not change the negative technical outlook of the KLCI, for it is still staying below the 14, 21, 31 EMA as well as the Bollinger Middle Band. If the KLCI should break below 1474, it would be making an near 6 months new low.


 
HAPPY TRADING

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