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Saturday, March 5, 2011

WALL STREET >>> DJIA trim early losses; End off low -0.72%

Stocks Drop as Oil Soars to New Two-Year High
Major market indexes trimmed the worst of their losses
February's nonfarm payrolls report from the government was generally expected to be the key catalyst behind today's market action, but black gold ended up in the driver's seat once again. Futures were pointed higher ahead of the open, after the Labor Department unveiled an unexpected decline in the jobless rate -- but average hourly earnings were unchanged for the month. This news became a point of contention on Wall Street as ongoing unrest in Libya propelled crude futures to a fresh two-year high north of $104 per barrel, reigniting concerns about runaway energy prices. As a result, the major market indexes spiraled lower today, with traders fleeing from U.S. equities ahead of what promised to be a conflict-filled weekend for oil-rich nations.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA – 12,169.88) was off more than 178 points at its session low, but found support near 12,080. Thanks to an eleventh-hour comeback, the blue chip barometer whittled its daily deficit to 88.32 points, or 0.72%, as 26 of its 30 components ended in the red. Travelers Companies (TRV) paced the four advancing equities with a 0.2% gain, while General Electric (GE) led the laggards with a 1.8% drop.
For the week, the Dow eked out an advance of 0.3%. The index remains comfortably north of its rising 10-week moving average.

In similar fashion, the S&P 500 Index (SPX – 1,321.15) saw its intraday slide halted by support near 1,313. The broad-market barometer settled for a daily deficit of 9.82 points, or 0.74%, ending squarely between its 10-day and 20-day moving averages. Finally, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP – 2,784.67) followed suit with its peers, erasing the worst of its losses after finding support near the site of its 10-day moving average. The COMP closed the day off 14.07 points, or 0.5%. On a weekly basis, both the SPX and COMP gained about 0.1%.

CRUDE : Gushing above $104; Up 6.7% w-o-w
Crude futures closed at their highest price since Sept. 26, 2008, as violent conflicts near Libyan oil facilities continued to stoke supply concerns. Against this backdrop, several U.S. lawmakers are now pushing for President Obama to deploy some of the 727 million barrels of oil held in the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and exchange operator CME Group (CME) once again hiked its margin requirements for crude and fuels contracts due to increasing volatility. Crude oil for April delivery ended the day up $2.51, or 2.5%, at $104.42 per barrel. For the week, black gold surged 6.7%.

GOLD : Dogged investors seek "safe haven"
Meanwhile, ongoing turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa continued to drive safe-haven demand for gold futures -- and spiking oil prices only served to underscore gold's allure as an inflationary hedge. Gold for April delivery added $12.20, or 0.9%, to close at $1,428.60 per ounce. On a weekly basis, gold futures gained 1.4%.

Elsewhere in the precious metals market, silver for May delivery tacked on $1, or 2.9%, to end at $35.33 per ounce -- a new three-decade peak.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Dow Jones Industrial Average
The Dow closed sharply lower due to profit taking on Friday as it consolidated some of Thursday's rally. Investors took profits despite today's latest employment report, which showed unemployment fell to 8.9%.

The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday.

Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the rally off last week's low, February's high crossing at 12,391 is the next upside target. Closes below last week's low crossing at 11,983 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

First resistance is February's high crossing at 12,391.
Second resistance is the January 2008 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 12,767.
 First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 11,983.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 11,803.
HAPPY WEEKEND

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