TECHNICAL ANALYSIS : 综合指数 2011年03月07日 / FBMKLCI 07/03/2011

综合指数 2011年 03月 07日

如图中箭头A所示，富时大马综合指数在1525点费氏阻力线遇阻后，周一下滑6.87点或0.45%。这表示综指阻力水平依然是1525点的费氏线，支持水平则是1513点的费氏线及布林中频带。

另一方面，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）还未明显的打开，因此暂时未能发出任何综指转强的讯号。不过，由于综指已经处于布林中频带以上，接下来只要布林频带能重新打开的话，那综指有望再次上探1525点的阻力水平。

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量周一明显的减少36.48%，继续处于40天的成交量平均值以下。这表示马股目前交投的确淡静，同时也暗示了投资者对市场还未恢复信心，因此保持场外观望。一般来说，若成交量偏低的话，综指将难以转强.

虽然综指还是在1525点费氏阻力线遇阻，但是如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）仍然处于70%水平以上，这表示综指短期的走势已经处于偏强的格局。以技术而言，只要随机指标能维持在70%水平以上，那创业板短期的走势将有望继续走高.

 总的来说，综指上扬突破T1的下降趋势线摆脱短期跌势后，目前正处于盘整格局中。接下来若布林频带能重新打开，再加上综指维持在布林中频带以上，那综指后市有望转强，不过必须获得成交量重返40天平均值以上的确认。
 

FBM KLCI 07 March 2011
As indicated by A, the KLCI failed to break above the 1525 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement, losing 6.87 points or 0.45%, thus the 1525 is still the immediate resistance for the KLCI. Support for the KLCI is at 1513 as well as the Bollinger Middle Band.

Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands has not expanded, and this suggests that the KLCI is likely to stay in its consolidation. Nevertheless, with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate technical outlook is now on the positive side.

As indicated by B, total market volume fell 36.48%, with volume below the 40-day Volume Moving Average. This shows that the market is quiet, as investors confidence is still low. Therefore, the KLCI market is less likely to pick up any strength with such low volume.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic remains above 70%, in the short term bullish territory, despite the KLCI retreat on Monday. Technically, if the Stochastic could stay above 70%, it suggests that the short term market movement for the KLCI is still positive.

In conclusion, after breaking above the T1 downtrend line, the KLCI has broken away from the short term downtrend, and currently consolidating. If later the Bollinger Bands should re-expands, with the KLCI still above the Bollinger Middle Band, the KLCI is set to re-test the 1525 resistance again, and likely to pick up some strength. However, this will have to be confirmed with stronger volume.