TECHNICAL ANALYSIS : 综合指数 2011年03月30日 / FBMKLCI 30/03/2011

综合指数 2011年 03月 30日
如图中箭头A所示，综指周三跳空上扬，按日上扬11.54点或0.76%。综指成功的上扬突破1525点的费氏阻力线，因此1525点的费氏线将是综指第一道支持水平。另外，14、21、31天综合加权移动平均线（Exponential Moving Average - EMA）依然是综指当前上扬的动态支持线。综指接下来要的阻力水平落在1537点的费氏线。

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量增加33.14%，继续保持在40天的成交量平均线（VMA）以上。这表示当前市场买盘继续增加，因此有足够的承接力来吸纳离场的卖压。足够的成交量是综指（或整个市场）维持上扬格局的关键因素之一。

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）继续维持在70%水平以上的短期强势区域里，这表示综指目前短期的走势还是偏强的，直到随机指标跌破70%水平为止，届时便是综指技术调整开始的讯号。

总的来说，综指目前继续有转强的迹象，惟必须形成较高底（Higher-Low）后，才能算是涨势的形成。无论如何，只要综指能继续获得14、21、31天EMA动态支持线的扶持，那目前的技术展望还是偏好的.

FBM KLCI 30 March 2011
As indicated by A, the KLCI gap up on Wednesday, gaining 11.54 points or 0.76%. The KLCI breaks above the 1525 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement resistance, and now the 1525 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement is the immediate support for the KLCI, while the 14, 21, 31 EMA is still serving as the dynamic support to the KLCI. Resistance for the KLCI is seen at 1537 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement.
As indicated by B, total market volume increased 33.14%, with volume above the 40-day Volume Moving Average. As the inflow of fresh capital increases, it helps by offsetting some selling pressure, and improves liquidity of the market, thus help lifting the market sentiment.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic stays above 70%, in the short term bullish territory. The KLCI short term movement is likely to be positive as long as the Stochastic should stay above 70%, and if the Stochastic should fall below 70%, it would be a signal suggesting a beginning of a technical correction.

With the KLCI above the 14, 21, 31 EMA, the technical outlook for the KLCI is positive, together with stronger volume, the market sentiment as a whole is expected to improve. However, the KLCI has yet to form a higher-low, in order to form an uptrend.

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