Composite Index 24/11/2009On Tuesday, the FBM KLCI was supported by the 1270 Fibonacci Retracement, and rebounded to close at 1272.09 points, upped 1.21 points. However, it is still resisted by the Bollinger Middle Band. Therefore, the Bollinger Middle Band is still the immediate resistance for the KLCI while other resistance is at 1300 level. 1270 Fibonacci Retracement is still the support for the KLCI.
As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands is still contracting, suggesting that the KLCI is still consolidating. Nonetheless, since the Bollinger Bands is now very narrow, it implies that the consolidation is near its end, and when the Bollinger Bands should re-expands, it would be a signal of a beginning of a new movement, and the direction of the new movement shall be determined by the relative position of the KLCI above or below the Bollinger Middle Band.
As indicated by B, total market volume declined 6%, with volume below the 40-day VMA level. This suggests that the market is now relatively quiet as the KLCI is consolidating. Technically, it is normal to have lower volume during a consolidation. But if the KLCI should its uptrend, volume above the 40-day VMA level is a must, in order to sustain the rally.As circled at C, the Stochastic is testing the 30% level. Therefore, it has not shown a short term bearish signal for the KLCI yet. If the Stochastic should break below the 30% level, it would be a short term bearish signal for the KLCI, and the short term movement for the KLCI is expected to be on the negative side.
In short, the KLCI is still consolidating while preparing for a new movement. If the Bollinger Bands should re-expand with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, it would be a positive signal for the new movement. Otherwise, if the KLCI should stay below the Bollinger Middle Band as the Bollinger Bands re-expands, it would be a bearish signal for the KLCI.
综合指数 2009年 11月 24日富时综合指数在1270点的费氏线支持水平稍微回弹1.21点，以1272.09点闭市，惟综指在布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）遇阻，所以这布林中频带是综指当前的动态阻力线，综指另一道的阻力水平是1300点的心理阻力关口，支持水平则是1270点的费氏线。
如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）进一步收窄，这显示综指依然维持调整巩固的格局，无论如何，这非常窄小的布林频带亦表示综指已经接近摆脱当前僵局，因为接下来只要布林频带开始打开，那综指将会出现一个新的趋势，而新的趋势将取决于综指当时处于布林中频带的相应位置。
如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量减少6%，这使到成交量继续处于40天的成交量平均线（VMA）以下。这表示马股的交投在巩固格局中的淡静，以技术而言，当市场处于巩固时，成交量萎缩是很正常的，但是若综指要恢复上扬格局时，成交量就必须增加并且重返40天的平均值以上，那么涨势才有望维持下去。
如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）在30%的水平回弹，所以综指的短期并未出现下跌的确认讯号，若随机指标能继续上扬的话，那综指的短期走势将有望开始转强。反之若随机指标跌破30%，那综指的短期走势将会技术上形成下跌的趋势。
总的来说，综指目前正处于一个调整巩固的格局，由于布林频带收窄，这也意味着综指正在酝酿一个新的趋势，接下来当布林频带开始打开时，那综指将摆脱目前的横摆巩固格局，而开始一个新的趋势，惟行趋势将取决于综指届时处于布林频带的相应位置。
如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量减少6%，这使到成交量继续处于40天的成交量平均线（VMA）以下。这表示马股的交投在巩固格局中的淡静，以技术而言，当市场处于巩固时，成交量萎缩是很正常的，但是若综指要恢复上扬格局时，成交量就必须增加并且重返40天的平均值以上，那么涨势才有望维持下去。如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）在30%的水平回弹，所以综指的短期并未出现下跌的确认讯号，若随机指标能继续上扬的话，那综指的短期走势将有望开始转强。反之若随机指标跌破30%，那综指的短期走势将会技术上形成下跌的趋势。
总的来说，综指目前正处于一个调整巩固的格局，由于布林频带收窄，这也意味着综指正在酝酿一个新的趋势，接下来当布林频带开始打开时，那综指将摆脱目前的横摆巩固格局，而开始一个新的趋势，惟行趋势将取决于综指届时处于布林频带的相应位置。
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