TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> 综合指数 2009年 11月 16日 / Composite Index 16/11/2009

综合指数 2009年 11月 16日
由于区域股市全面回弹，综指也追随上扬，全日上升7.35点（参考箭头A），以1278.31点闭市，综指当前的支持水平依然落在1270点的费氏线，阻力水平则是1300点心理阻力关口。
如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）停止收窄，并且稍微打开1%，所以综指的调整走势有停止了的迹象，由于综指目前已经处于布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）以上，所以接下来只要布林频带开始打开，那综指将有望再度出现上扬的趋势。

如图中箭头B所示，马股成交量在综指回弹时迅速增加了36.1%，这表示投资者密切关注市场，在有利于投资者的时机出现时立即回笼，这使到成交量上扬突破了40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）的水平。接下来若综指继续转强，而成交量亦能维持在40天成交量平均值以上的话，那综指的后市将有望稳健中更上一层楼。

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）在70%以上的水平上扬，这表示综指的短期走势转向上扬，一般上，只要随机指标继续处于70%以上，那综指的短期走势将能一直维持在偏强的格局，直到随机指标再度跌破70%为止。

总的来说，接下来只要综指继续在布林中频带上获得扶持，那布林频带将有望在短期内开始打开，这将是综指再度出现上扬趋势的讯号，若成交量亦继续的维持在40天成交量移动平均线以上，那综指接下来的后市将有望继续走高，上探1300点的心理阻力关口。
Composite Index 16/11/2009
As the regional markets rebounded, the KLCI picked up 7.35 points (as indicated by A), to close at 1278.31 points. Support for the KLCI remains at 1270 Fibonacci Retracement while the resistance is at 1300 psychological level.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands stopped contracting, and expanded 1%, suggesting that the consolidation of the KLCI might be coming to an end, and the KLCI is likely to resume its uptrend movement, as the KLCI is still above the Bollinger Middle Band.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 36.1% as the KLCI rebounded. This suggests that investors are taking advantage of the market rebound, causing the volume to break above the 40-day VMA level. If the KLCI should resume its uptrend with volume firmly above the 40-day VMA level, the outlook for the KLCI should be positive.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic remains above 70% level, suggesting that the KLCI short term movement is still bullish biased. Provided that the Stochastic is still above 70% level, the bullish biased movement of the KLCI is likely to continue.

In short, if the KLCI should remain supported by the Bollinger Middle Band, the Bollinger Bands is expected to re-expand in the near future, and then, it would be a bullish signal for the KLCI. If volume should remains above the 40-day VMA level, it would add strength to the KLCI bullish signal and the KLCI is likely to test the 1300 resistance level.