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Saturday, November 21, 2009

Dow's Comeback Comes Up Short, Mixed For Week

Thanks to a last minute rally, stocks ended off their lows on Friday but it wasn’t enough to prevent Wall Street from falling into a three-day slump, continuing a trend that had begun half a day before in markets half a world away in Asia.
Wall Street's November rally has run into resistance in recent days, with the Dow sinking more than 100 points since soaring to 13-month highs on Tuesday. Friday’s mini slide was driven by sinking energy stocks and the tumbling tech sector, which was hurt by Dell’s (DELL) ugly quarterly report.

Today's Markets
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 14.28 points, or 0.14%, to 10318.16, the S&P 500 sank 3.53 points, or 0.32%, to 1091.37 and the Nasdaq Composite lost 10.78 points, or 0.50%, to 2146.04.

For the week:
The Dow is up 47.69, or 0.5 percent.
The S&P is down 2.10, or 0.2 percent.
The Nasdaq is down 21.84, or 1.0 percent.

For the year:
The Dow is up 1,541.77, or 17.6 percent.
The S&P is up 188.13, or 20.8 percent.
The Nasdaq is up 569.01, or 36.1 percent.

“It’s not a very positive signal. All the signals we’re looking at are pretty bearish,” NYSE trader Ben Willis of VDM Institutional Brokerage told Business Reports.
Still, the Dow managed to close in the green this week for the third-straight time -- the longest weekly win streak since the one that ended in early August. And the pullback is relatively small compared to the 6.8% surge on the benchmark index during a 10-day stretch that ended Tuesday.

The Nasdaq Composite, which ended the week more than 1% lower, slumped much further than the broader markets as tech stocks fell amid PC maker Dell's weaker-than-expected results. Dell plunged nearly 10% after missing estimates with a 54% drop in net income to 17 cents a share. Analysts had been expecting a profit of 27 cents a share.
It's worth noting that Friday's pullback came amid very light trading. In fact, consolidated volume, which encompasses more than just NYSE floor volume, came in at the third-lowest level of the entire year.
Without any major economic reports on the agenda, the focus was once again on the U.S. dollar, which has rebounded in recent days after having plunged throughout the fall. While a long-term positive for the economy, a rallying dollar has put pressure on crude oil, and the energy sector.
Energy stocks were the biggest drags on Friday, sinking roughly 1% as crude oil fell for the second day in a row. Individual stocks like XTO Energy (XTO) and Schlumberger (SLB) slid even further. Crude settled at $76.72 a barrel, down 74 cents, or 0.96%.

Despite the dollar's strength, gold rallied 14th day of the last 15 -- the longest streak of its kind in exchange traded history. The precious metal Gold Spot Futures rose $6.78 a troy ounce, or 0.59%, to $1151.00 at closing bell.

US$ & Gold >>> What to expect

Despite dollar highs against major rivals, the fact that gold is unable to correct is halting further gains in the American currency, that at current levels, will only be correcting it’s still in play bearish trend. No doubts, many will question that trend at this point, and it has been over reacted, or if it’s just a consolidation stage.

Far from the week close, at current levels dollar is about to close with gains against most rivals except Japanese Yen; if this last was unable to run further on this risk aversion movement, was due to the recognition of the nation deflation. Gains are more substantial against commodity currencies such as AUD, CAD and NZD despite neither gold, not oil, are far from year highs. As we approach the year end, maybe not only adjustment but profit taking, could trigger further dollar gains.

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