TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> Composite Index 02/11/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 11月 02日

Composite Index 02/11/2009

As stock markets across the globe were mostly lower, the KLCI opened lower with a gap on Monday, but the KLCI pullback, closing only 1.47 points lower. Support for the KLCI is still at 1220 Fibonacci Retracement (FR), while the resistance is at 1248 FR.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands expanded 14%, while the KLCI is still below the Bollinger Middle Band, and therefore, the bearish biased movement for the KLCI is still intact, until the Bollinger Bands contracts.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 7.5%, with volume still firmly above the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the market is still widely participated, which is a positive element that would help sustaining the positive market sentiment. However, as the KLCI ended almost flat, the relatively high volume on Monday implies an increase of conflict between some bullish buyers and bearish sellers.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic %K line is about to cross above the %D line. If the %K line should cross above the %D line and then breaking above 30% level, it would be a signal suggesting an end to the short term bearish movement, and the KLCI is likely to rebound.

In conclusion, with the KLCI still below the Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate outlook is still on the negative side. If the Bollinger Bands should continue to expand, more downside risk for the KLCI is expected. On the other hand, the Stochastic is about to break above 30% level, and the KLCI might have a chance for a technical rebound. If the Stochastic should also break above 70% level, then only the KLCI would have a chance to regain its strength.

综合指数 2009年 11月 02日

全球股市在道指下挫的影响下走低，富时综合指数更再度向下跳空开市，惟综指在跌破布林频带（Bollinger Bands）后受到拉回效应（Pullback Effect）而回弹，收市时收窄跌幅，按日综指只微跌1.47点。综指当前的支持水平是1220点至1226点的费氏线，阻力水平则是1248点的费氏线。

如图所示，布林频带打开14%，而综指继续低于布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band），所以综指进一步下跌；通常综指将继续处于趋软的格局，直到布林频带打开的幅度减少或收窄为止。另一方面，布林中频带将成为综指上扬时的动态阻力线，所以若综指一日不能突破布林中频带，综指将继续维持目前的格局。

如图中箭头B所示，马股成交量进一步增加7.5%，所以成交量依然维持在40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）的水平，这表示市场继续活跃，仍然有相当多的股票转手，这可以喻为为牛市与熊市正处于拉锯战中，所以市场得以维持偏高的成交量。

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）的%K线有上扬交割%D的迹象，若%K在上扬交割%D后进一步上扬突破30%的话，那综指的短期跌势将有望结束，而综指将可望出现技术反弹。

总的来说，由于综指目前低于布林中频带，所以只要布林频带继续打开，那综指将有下跌的风险，直到综指能成功上扬突破布林中频带为止。另一方面，随机指标有上扬突破30%的迹象，所以预料综指在近期内有出现技术反弹的可能，届时若随机指标能上扬至70%以上的水平，综指将有望转为短期上扬的趋势。