TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> 综合指数 2009年 11月 05日 / Composite Index 05/11/2009

综合指数 2009年 11月 05日
富时综合指数周四窄幅波动，等待市场进一步的明朗化，如图中箭头A所示，综指盘中一度稍微下调，惟综指精确的在布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）上获得扶持而回弹。综指当前的支持水平除了布林中频带这动态支持线外，还有1248点的费氏线，阻力水平则是1270点的费氏线。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）收窄的幅度减至-3%，这显示布林频带有再度打开的迹象，这意味着综指有形成新趋势的可能。通常当布林频带开始打开时，只要综指能维持在布林中频带以上的话，那综指将有望形成上扬的趋势，反之依然。

如图中箭头B所示，马股成交量不但成功维持在40天成交量以上，也增长了21.2%，这表示整体市场处于一个活跃的格局；在个别股项的分析下，成交量高是归功于许多微型、低价的股项纷纷进入热门股项所致的。无论如何，若成交量能继续维持一个高于40天平均值的水平，这都对综指继续转强有利。

如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）目前处于50%以上的水平，所以综指的短期走势有转强的迹象，虽然这只代表短期的走势，惟这亦可能是综指转强的最早的讯号，所以投资者可以早一步做好准备。一般上，若随机指标能上扬突破70%的水平，那综指的短期走势将算是形成了上扬的格局。

总的来说，虽然区域股市再度受挫，不过综指却只窄幅波动，并且在布林中频带上获得支持，所以只要区域股市摆脱进一步转坏，那综指的后市有望更上一层楼。

Composite Index 05/11/2009
On Thursday, the FBM KLCI is still fluctuating at a narrow range, while waiting for more fresh lead. As indicated by A, the KLCI had its intra-day low touching the Bollinger Middle Band, and rebounded. This suggests that the Bollinger Middle Band is still the support for the KLCI. Meanwhile, the 1248 Fibonacci Retracement is also the support for the KLCI, while the resistance is at 1270 Fibonacci Retracement.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands contracted only 3%, suggesting that the Bollinger Bands might be re-expanding soon, and the KLCI is about to begin a new movement. If the KLCI should stay above the Bollinger Middle Band as the Bollinger Bands re-expands, it would be a bullish biased signal for the KLCI.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 21.2%, while volume is still firmly above the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the market is still actively participated. However, most of the actively traded stocks are low-priced counters. Nonetheless, generally, if volume should remain above 40-day VMA level, the market sentiment is usually positive.

As circled at C, the Stochastic is staying above 50% level, giving some slight implication that the KLCI short term movement is still slightly bullish biased. This is an unconfirmed, early implication of a bullish biased signal. By right, the Stochastic has to break above 70% level, in order to signal a bullish short term movement for the KLCI.

In short, the KLCI is still holding up well despite negative performance across regional markets. If the regional markets should rebound, the KLCI is likely to regain some strength.