TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> Composite Index 13/11/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 11月 13日

Composite Index 13/11/2009
The FBM KLCI was trading at a narrow range on Friday. The KLCI opened higher and closed lower, but it managed to close above the 1270 level. Therefore, the 1270 Fibonacci Retracement is still the support for the KLCI while the resistance is still at 1300 psychological level.

As indicated by A, the Bollinger Bands contracted 2%, suggesting that the KLCI is entering yet another consolidation, and the Bollinger Middle Band is the dynamic support. In other words, provided that the KLCI is still supported by the Bollinger Middle Band, the KLCI is not yet forming a downtrend.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 14.7%, breaking below the 40-day VMA level. This suggests that the market participation has reduced, partly due to the consolidation mood of the market as investors are staying on the sidelines.

As circled at C, the Stochastic is still above the 70% level, which suggests that the short term movement of the KLCI is still bullish biased. Technically speaking, if the Stochastic should break below 70% level, it would be an end to the short term bullishness of the KLCI. If the Stochastic should break below 30% level, it would be a short term bearish signal for the KLCI.

With the Bollinger Bands contracting, the KLCI is expected to consolidate again. But if the KLCI should stay above the Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate outlook for the KLCI is still on the positive side. If the KLCI should break below the Bollinger Middle Band, there is a risk of a reversal.

综合指数 2009年 11月 13日
富时综合指数周五窄幅波动，在以稍微高的水平开市后，综指开始走软，惟综指精确的1270点的费氏线获得扶持，这表示1270点将继续的成为综指的支持水平，阻力水平则依然处于1300点的心理阻力关口。

如图中箭头A所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）开始收窄2%，所以综指目前是属于一个调整巩固的格局，布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）接下来成为了综指当前的动态支持线。换句话说，只要综指一日不跌破布林中频带，综指将不会出现下跌的趋势。

如图中箭头B所示，马股成交量减少14.7%，跌破了40天成交量移动平均线（VMA），这表示整体市场在缺乏新的指引下进行巩固，投资者开始以离场观望者居多，这使到成交量减退。

如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）依然维持在70%以上的水平，这显示综指的短期走势继续偏强。以技术而言，若随机指标跌破70%，那综指的短期涨势才算是真正结束，而当随机指标跌破30%的话，那综指将出现短期下跌的走势。

由于布林频带开始收窄，所以综指正步入调整巩固的格局，接下来只要综指能继续的在布林中频带以上获得扶持，综指还是有望返回上扬的趋势。不过若综指跌破布林中频带，那综指这有开始转为下跌趋势的风险。