TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> Composite Index 10/11/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 11月 10日

Composite Index 10/11/2009
As indicated by A, the Bollinger Bands expanded, with the FBM KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, and the KLCI ended higher, breaking above the 1270 (FR) Fibonacci Retracement. The next resistance for the KLCI is seen at 1300 FR while the supports are at 1270 followed by the 1248 Fibonacci Retracement.

The Bollinger Bands expanded 22%, suggesting a bullish movement for the KLCI. Generally, if the Bollinger Bands should continue expanding, the upside movement of the KLCI is expected to continue, until the Bollinger Bands expansion rate decreases or the Bollinger Bands contract. Then, it would be a signal suggesting a technical correction or a consolidation for the KLCI. The Bollinger Middle Band is now serving as the dynamic support for the KLCI.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 5.3%, while firmly staying above the 40-day VMA level. This suggests that the market as a whole is well-liquid, as inflow of fresh capital is still sufficient to absord the selling pressure. This is a positive element that help sustain the KLCI uptrend.

As circled at C, the Stochastic retreated after hitting 100%. This is a signal of an over-heated short term movement, as the KLCI formed a candlestick with an upper shadow line. Nonetheless, provided that the Stochastic is above 70%, the short term movement for the KLCI is still positive.

In short, the KLCI ended higher with a gap as the Bollinger Bands expands, but still, profit taking is relatively strong on Tuesday as the KLCI formed a candlestick with an upper shadow line. Nevertheless, technically speaking, the immediate outlook for the KLCI is still bullish, until the Bollinger Bands should contract.

综合指数 2009年 11月 10日
如图中箭头A所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）开始打开，再加上综指继续的处于布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）以上，所以富时综合指数进一步上扬，并且突破了1270点的阻力线，综指目前迈进1300点的阻力水平，支持水平则是刚突破了的1270点及1248点的费氏线。
布林频带打开的幅度打21%，所以综指确认了上扬转强的趋势，通常综指将继续处于一个上扬的格局中，直到布林频带打开的幅度开始减少或收窄为止，届时将是综指出现技术调整的时候，而布林中频带将成为综指的动态支持线。

如图中箭头B所示，马股成交量增加5.3%，所以成交量仍然维持在40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）水平以上，这意味着市场的承接力高，可以吸纳因套利活动的涌出的卖压，所以对综指继续维持在上扬的格局有正面的作用。

如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）在达到100%后回退，这显示综指短期走势有过热的迹象，所以综指出现一个长上影线的阴阳烛。无论如何，这只是一个短期的讯号，因为只要随机指标继续维持在70%以上，综指基本上还是处于一个上扬的格局中。

总的来说，综指在布林频带打开的推波助澜下走高，并且出现跳空的开市，惟投资者仍然谨慎，所以随机指标发出短期过热的讯号。无论如何，以技术而言，综指依然处于短期的上扬格局中，直到布林频带打开的幅度减低或收窄为止。

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