TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> Composite Index 20/11/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 11月 20日

Composite Index 20/11/2009
The consolidation of the KLCI continues on Friday, while still supported by the Bollinger Middle Band (as indicated by A). Therefore, the Bollinger Middle Band is still serving as the dynamic support for the KLCI. Generally, provided that the KLCI is supported by the Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate outlook is still on the positive side. 1270 Fibonacci Retracement remains as the support for the KLCI while the resistance is still at 1300 psychological level.

As shown on the chart, the Bollinger Bands contracted 31%, suggesting that the KLCI is indeed consolidating, and the consolidation is expected to carry on until the Bollinger Bands re-expands. Technically, if the Bollinger Bands should re-expand with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, the KLCI is likely to resume its uptrend.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 36.5%, breaking below the 40-day VMA level, which is usually normal for the KLCI during consolidation. As mentioned on Thursday, the sudden increased of volume on Thursday was mostly contributed from Scomi-LA and Maxis, thus did not truly reflect the market strength. Nevertheless, with volume below the 40-day VMA level, the KLCI is expected to stay in consolidation mood.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic is still falling, suggesting that the short term movement of the KLCI is still weakening. If the Stochastic should break below 30% level, it would be a short term bearish signal for the KLCI.

In short, the Bollinger Bands contracts, and the KLCI consolidation continues. Immediate outlook for the KLCI is still positive for it is still staying above the Bollinger Middle Band. Therefore, should the Bollinger Bands re-expands with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, it would be a bullish signal suggesting that the KLCI might resume its uptrend. Otherwise, if the KLCI should stay below the Bollinger Middle Band when the Bollinger Bands expands, it would be a bearish signal.

综合指数 2009年 11月 20日
富时综合指数继续调整，惟综指精确的在布林中频带获得扶持（参考箭头A），所以布林中频带继续的成为综指接下来的动态支持线，一般上只要综指能在布林中频带上获得扶持，综指的上扬趋势还算是完整的。综指当前的支持水平依然是落在1270点的费氏线，阻力水平则是1300点的心理阻力水平。

如图所示，由于布林频带（Bollinger Bands）进一步收窄31%，所以综指目前依然维持在调整巩固的格局，直到布林频带再度打开为止。以技术而言，在布林频带再度打开时，若综指依然能守住布林中频带的水平，那综指将有望再度出现上扬的趋势。

如图中箭头B所示，马股成交量急跌36.5%，并且跌破了40天成交量移动平均线（VMA），这符合了布林频带收窄的调整巩固讯号，这也是为何周四的成交量代表性低的缘故。如今成交量低于40天平均值显示市场淡静，这通常都是综指处于调整巩固时的典型情形。

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）进一步下滑，所以综指的短期走势仍然趋软，接下来若随机指标跌破30%的水平，那综指将有形成短期跌势的风险。

总的来说，布林频带继续收窄，所以综指目前仍然维持调整巩固的格局，由于综指在布林中频带上获得扶持，所以综指有望在布林中频带上出现技术反弹，届时若布林频带开始打开的话，那综指将有望重新出现上扬的趋势；反之若综指跌破布林中频带，那综指则有望转为跌势的风险。