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Wednesday, November 4, 2009

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> Composite Index 04/11/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 11月 04日

Composite Index 04/11/2009
As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands contracted 8%, and the KLCI technically rebounded, breaking above the Bollinger Middle Band as well as the 1248 Fibonacci Retracement ( FR ). Support for the KLCI is now at 1248 Fibonacci Retracement while the resistance is at 1270 FR.

With the KLCI now above the Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate outlook is turning positive. Therefore, if the Bollinger Bands should re-expand with the KLCI remains above the Bollinger Middle Band, there is a good chance that the KLCI would resume its uptrend.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 3.1%, with volume still above the 40-day VMA level. Overall, the market is still widely participated, thus giving a positive lift to the market sentiment.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic broke above 30% level, suggesting that the KLCI is breaking away from its short term bearish region. Which is also a signal of a technical rebound. If the Stochastic should return to above 70% level, it would be a signal suggesting that the short term movement of the KLCI is getting bullish.

Although some selling pressure has pulled down the KLCI, it was well-absorbed by the increased of buying interest as volume increases. Now that the KLCI is breaking above the Bollinger Middle Band, the KLCI outlook is expected to improve. Provided that the Bollinger Bands should re-expand with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, the improvement of the KLCI is likely to carry on, unless the KLCI should failed to stay above the Bollinger Middle Band.

综合指数 2009年 11月 04日
如图所示,布林频带(Bollinger Bands)开始收窄(-8%),所以富时综合指数亦开始了技术反弹,并且分别上扬突破了1248点费氏线及布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band)。综指接下来的支持水平是刚突破了的1248点,阻力水平则上移至1270点的费氏线。
由于综指已经上扬突破了布林中频带,所以只要接下来布林频带开始打开,那综指将有望结束下跌的趋势,而逆转为上升的趋势,无论如何,综指要维持转强的先决条件是综指必须一直维持在布林中频带以上。

如图中箭头B所示,马股成交量稍微减少3.1%,所以成交量成功的保持在40天成交量移动平均线(VMA)以上,这显示市场的承接力量雄厚,这对综指综指继续转强有着正面的作用。

如图中箭头C所示,随机指标(Stochastic)上扬突破30%的水平,显示综指短期走势转为上扬的讯号,这意味着综指目前正在技术反弹中。无论如何,若随机指标随后能进一步上扬至70%以上,那综指的短期将能从技术反弹进入上扬的格局。

虽然综指过去数日面对一定的卖压,不过都被偏高的成交量、承接力量吸纳了,所以综指在区域股市上扬时闻风起舞,上扬整1%,突破了布林中频带的动态阻力水平。接下来只要布林频带开始明显的打开,那综指将有望结束两周的跌势,转为上扬的格局。无论如何,若综指接下来再度跌破布林中频带,这将是综指后劲不足的现象,综指有再度转弱的风险。

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