TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> 综合指数 2009年 11月 19日 / Composite Index 19/11/2009

综合指数 2009年 11月 19日
如图中箭头A所示，富时综合指数再度在布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）上获得扶持，综指微扬1.55点，这表示布林中频带继续成为综指当前的动态支持线，综指另一道支持水平则落在1270点的费氏线，阻力水平则是1300点的心理阻力关口。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）收窄13%，所以综指目前正处于一个调整巩固的格局中，直到布林频带再度打开为止。届时综指新走势的方向将取决于综指处于布林中频带的相应位置，若综指仍然维持在布林中频带以上的话，那综指将有望形成上扬的趋势，反之依然。

如图中箭头B所示，马股成交量增加43%，使到成交量继续高于40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）的水平，这显示市场仍然相当活跃，无论如何，由于有大部分的成交量都集中于新股以、期权及凭单等股项，所以其代表性有待进一步的确认，换句话说，若成交量能继续维持在40天成交量平均值的话，那综指才能避免布林频带收窄带来的调整讯号。

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）继续下滑，所以综指的短期走势依然趋软，接下来若随机指标跌破30%，那综指的短期走势将出现下跌的讯号。

由于布林频带收窄，所以综指目前依然处于一个调整巩固的格局，所幸的是综指依然处于布林中频带以上，不过一旦综指跌破布林中频带，那综指将开始有转弱的风险。无论如何，目前所以的技术讯号都必须得到布林频带再度打开，才能获得确认。
Composite Index 19/11/2009
As indicated by A, the FBM KLCI rebounded from the Bollinger Middle Band, ended 1.55 points higher on Thursday. This suggests that the Bollinger Middle Band is still serving as the dynamic support for the KLCI, while the other support for the KLCI is still at 1270. Resistance for the KLCI is at 1300 psychological level.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands contracted 13%, suggesting that the KLCI is still consolidating. If the Bollinger Bands should re-expands, it would be a signal suggesting the end of the consolidation, then, the position of the KLCI above or below the Bollinger Middle Band shall determine the direction of the new movement for the KLCI.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 43%, with volume firmly above the 40-day VMA level. This suggests that the overall market is well-participated. However, most of the volume on Thursday were from the trading of Maxis and some newly listed counters, and also some warrants. Therefore, this has not totally reflect the market strength. Nonetheless, provided the volume should remain above the 40-day VMA level, the market sentiment as a whole shall remain positive.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic is still falling, suggesting that the KLCI short term movement is still weakening. If the Stochastic should break below 30% level, it would be a short term bearish signal for the KLCI.

With the Bollinger Bands still contracting, the consolidation of the KLCI remains intact. Fortunately, the KLCI is still supported by the Bollinger Middle Band, and the immediate outlook for the KLCI is still on the positive side. However, if the KLCI should break below the Bollinger Middle Band, the KLCI would be turning weak. Still, the new movement of the KLCI still need to be confirmed with the re-expansion of the Bollinger Bands.