TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> Composite Index 18/11/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 11月 18日

Composite Index 18/11/2009
As indicated by A, the FBM KLCI ended 4.85 points lower to close at 1275.10 points. Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands contracted 24%, suggesting that the KLCI is indeed consolidating again, and the Bollinger Middle Band shall be the target of the consolidation or technical correction. If the KLCI should rebound from the Bollinger Middle Band, there is a chance that the KLCI might resume its uptrend.

In other words, if the KLCI should break below the Bollinger Middle Band, there is a risk of the KLCI forming a downtrend. Support for the KLCI is at 1270 Fibonacci Retracement while the resistance is still at 1300 psychological level.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 9.5%, with volume now touching the 40-day VMA level. If volume should break below the 40-day VMA level, it suggests the market activities is relatively quiet, as investors are staying on the sidelines.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic breaks below 70% level, ended the short term bullish movement. If the Stochastic should remain below 70% level, the consolidation of the KLCI is expected to continue, and if the Stochastic should break below 30% level, it would be a short term bearish signal for the KLCI.

In short, the KLCI is still consolidating, and if the KLCI should be supported by the Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate outlook for the KLCI is still positive, and there is still a chance for the KLCI to resume its uptrend. However, if the KLCI should break below the Bollinger Middle Band, the weakening movement of the KLCI is expected to carry on.

综合指数 2009年 11月 18日
如图中箭头A所示，富时综合指数下滑4.85点，以1275.10点闭市。如图中箭头A所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）收窄24%，所以综指目前是处于一个调整巩固的格局中，而当前的调整目标是布林中频带（Bollinger Middle band），若综指能在布林中频带上获得扶持的话，那综指中期上扬趋势依然是完整的。

换句话说，若综指跌破布林中频带这道的话，那综指就有开始转弱的风险。综指接下来的支持水平依然处于1270点的费氏线，阻力水平则维持在1300点的心理阻力关口。

如图中箭头B所示，马股成交量进一步减退9.5%，这使到成交量跌至40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）的水平，所以若成交量再度减少的话，那成交量将低于40天成交量平均值，这表示综指有开始步入淡静的可能。

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）跌破70%的水平，这表示综指的短期上扬趋势有结束的迹象，换句话说若随机指标短期内不能重新上扬突破70%的话，那综指的短期涨势将被确认结束，而随后若随机指标跌破30%的话，综指的短期走势则有出现下跌的讯号。

总的来说，综指的短期走势显示综指正处于一个调整巩固的格局中，接下来只要综指成功的在布林中频带上获得扶持，那综指将有望再度恢复上扬的格局；反之若综指跌破布林中频带，那综指的后市将看低一线。