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Tuesday, December 21, 2010

Technical Analysis : 综合指数 2010年12月21日 / FBMKLCI 21/12/2010

综合指数 2010年 12月 21日
如图中箭头A所示,富时综合指数回弹上扬,重新回到1500点以上的水平,综指以1505.18点闭市,按日上扬9.30点。综指当前的支持水平上移至1500点的费氏线,阻力水平则是1532点的费氏线,另一方面,综指亦正在形成一个三角形,这三角形的两道趋势线也将成为综指的动态支持与阻力线。


如图所示,综指一度上探布林中频带,惟综指最终在套利下回软,以致综指闭市的水平低于布林中频带,这显示综指仍然未能突破布林中频带这道动态阻力线。无论如何,由于布林频带(Bollinger Bands)收窄2%,这表示综指目前正处于一个横摆巩固的格局,直到布林频带开始明显的打开为止,综指才会开始新的趋势。

如图中箭头B所示,随机指标(Stochastic)出现回弹,并且上扬突破了30%的水平,这显示综指的短期走势摆脱了下跌的趋势,接下来若随机指标能继续上扬,并且突破70%的水平,综指的短期走势将有望恢复上扬的趋势。

图中箭头C所示,马股成交量在综指上扬的带领下增加30.16%,这显示投资者开始回笼,这增加了市场的买盘及承接力量,对综指转强是有利的。

总的来说,综指重新返回1500点以上的水平,再加上综指同时突破14、21、31天的加权移动平均线)(EMA),这对市场来说是有着正面的作用。接下来若综指能继续上扬,并且上扬突破布林中频带,那综指将有望摆脱横摆巩固,恢复上扬的趋势。


FBM KLCI 21 December 2010
As indicated by A, the FBM KLCI rebounded on Tuesday, breaking above the 1500 level, to close at 1505.18 points, up 9.30 points. Therefore, the immediate support for the KLCI is back at 1500 while the immediate resistance is at 1532.


Meanwhile, the KLCI remains in its Triangle consolidation.

As shown on the chart above, the KLCI tested the Bollinger Middle Band, but failed to break above the Bollinger Middle Band. This suggests that despite the rebound, immediate technical outlook for the KLCI remains weak. Nevertheless, with the Bollinger Bands contracting again, the KLCI is expected to consolidate further.

As indicated by B, the Stochastic rebounded, and break above 30%, breaking away from its short term bearish territory. This is a signal suggesting a beginning of a short term technical rebound. If the Stochastic could break above 70%, it would be a short term bullish signal for the KLCI.

As indicated by C, total market volume increased 30.16%, and this suggests some improvement in the market participation. If volume could stay above the 40-day Volume Moving Average, the market sentiment as a whole is likely to improve.

In conclusion, the rebound on Tuesday has helped lifted the technical outlook a little, and if the KLCI could resume to above the 14, 21, 31 EMA, the KLCI would have a chance to resume its long term uptrend.
HAPPY TRADING

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