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Saturday, December 11, 2010

Technical Analysis : 综合指数 2010年12月10日 / FBMKLCI 10/12/2010

综合指数 2010年 12月 10日
如图中箭头A所示,富时综合指数下跌14.01点或0.92%,综指以1507.28点闭市,所以综指目前仍然受到1525点的费氏线阻碍,这成为综指接下来的阻力水平,综指的支持水平则落在1500点的心理支持关口。

无论如何,综指目前仍然处于14、21、31天加权移动平均线(EMA)以上,所以以技术分析而言,综指目前仍然属于一个偏强的格局,直到综指跌破EMA为止。

如图所示,布林频带(Bollinger Bands)开始收窄2%, 这显示综指的上扬趋势结束并且开始调整;一般上,在综指开始调整时,布林中频带将成为综指的动态支持线,只要综指能在布林中频带上获得扶持,综指上扬的趋势将有望在调整后延续下去。

图中箭头B所示,马股成交量稍微增加0.39%,并且维持在40天成交量移动平均线(VMA)以上,这显示市场交投仍然活跃,这将使到市场的承接力量增长,有助于吸纳套利的卖压。

如图中箭头C所示,随机指标(Stochastic)下跌至70%,这显示综指的短期走势出现技术调整的走势,无论如何,若随机指标短期内能反弹并保持在70%以上,综指的短期走势仍然属于上扬的格局内,反之若随机指标继续低于70%以下,综指的短期涨势将宣告结束。

总的来说,由于布林频带收窄,所以综指出现技术调整,无论如何,综指目前仍然处于布林中频带以上,这表示综指的走势仍然有望转强,直到综指跌破布林中频带这到动态支持线为止。


FBM KLCI 10 December 2010
As indicated by A, the KLCI fell 14.01 points or 0.92%, to close at 1507.28 points. Resistance for the KLCI remains at 1525 and the immediate support for the KLCI is at 1500. Despite the falling, the KLCI remains supported by the 14, 21, 31 EMA, thus the technical outlook remains on the positive side.

Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands contracted 2% and if the Bollinger Bands should continue to narrow down, the KLCI is expected to consolidate again.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 0.39%, with volume above the 40-day Volume Moving Average. This suggests that the market is still relatively active.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic is testing 70%, and if the Stochastic should fall below 70%, it will mark an end to the short term bullish signal for the KLCI.

In short, the KLCI is likely to consolidate, or stay in range bound, but technical outlook remains positive, unless the KLCI should fall below the 14, 21, 31 EMA dynamic support.

HAPPY WEEKEND

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