Technical Analysis : 综合指数 2010年12月13日 / FBMKLCI 13/12/2010

综合指数 2010年 12月 13日
如图中箭头A所示，富时综合指数稍微回弹2.51点，以1509.79点闭市，所以1500仍然是综指当前的支持水平，阻力水平则保持在1525点及1532点的费氏线。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）重新打开，虽然打开的幅度只是3%，由于综指仍然保持在布林中频带以上，这已经使到综指暂时避开进一步转弱。接下来若布林频带继续打开，而综指又能维持在布林中频带以上，综指将有望继续的转强。

图中箭头B所示，马股成交量减少24.37%，这显示整体市场稍微乏力，这可能是综指横摆巩固时，投资者选择离场观望所致。以技术而言，当综指再度恢复上扬趋势时，成交量得增加至40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）以上，综指转强的趋势才能在足够的承接力量下持续下去。

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）在70%的水平回弹，这显示综指的短期涨势仍然算是完整的，接下来只要随机指标继续的保持在70%以上，综指将有望为止短期转强的格局，直到随机指标跌破70%为止。

总的来说，布林频带打开的幅度不大，所以综指其实是继续调整巩固的走势，直到布林频带重新打开为止，届时若综指仍然维持在布林中频带以及14、21、31天加权移动平均线（EMA）以上，那综指将有望恢复上扬的趋势，再度上探1531.99点的阻力水平。

FBM KLCI 13 December 2010
As indicated by A, the FBM KLCI rebounded 2.51 points to close at 1509.79 points, and therefore, the 1500 is still the immediate support for the KLCI while the resistance is at 1525 and 1532.

Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands expanded, but only 3%. Nevertheless, with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate technical outlook for the KLCI is on the positive side.

As indicated by B, total market volume fell 24.37%, with volume falling below the 40-day Volume Moving Average. This is a sign of lack of market participation, and if volume should remain low, it suggests that the investors confidence is relatively low, thus staying on the sidelines.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic remains above 70%, in the short term bullish territory. Provided that the Stochastic stays above 70%, the market movement for the short term shall remain positive.

In short, technical outlook for the KLCI remains positive, and if the Bollinger Bands should continue to expand with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, more upside movement is expected for the KLCI. As for the longer term picture, the 14, 21, 31 EMA shall remain serving as the dynamic support.

HAPPY TRADING