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Wednesday, December 1, 2010

Technical Analysis : 综合指数 2010年12月01日/FBMKLCI 01/12/2010

综合指数 2010年 12月 01日
如图中箭头A所示,富时综合指数一度回弹,惟综指精确的在1487点的费氏线遇阻,这成为综指当前的阻力水平,综指按日至微扬0.19点,以1485.42点闭市。综指当前的支持水平落在1460点的费氏线,阻力水平则分别是1487点的费氏线以及1500点的心理阻力关口。


如图所示,布林频带(Bollinger Bands)打开的幅度减少至6%,所以综指避开进一步的转弱,惟综指目前仍然处于布林中频带以下,所以综指仍然属于弱势中,直到综指上扬突破布林中频带为止。

图中箭头B所示,马股成交量减少12.75%,这使到成交量继续的处于40天成交量移动平均线(VMA)以下,无论如何,这是综指目前处于横摆巩固走势的典型状态。

如图中箭头C所示,随机指标(Stochastic)并未跌破30%,这显示综指的短期走势也并未进入下跌的格局,接下来若随机指标继续回弹,那综指的短期走势将有望避开转弱下跌。无论如何,目前随机指标将显得较为敏感,这是因为综指横摆巩固所致。

综指目前已经处于布林中频带以及14、21、31天加权移动平均线(EMA)以下,这显示综指有转弱的先兆,所幸的是布林频带目前并未明显打开,所以综指短期内必须迅速的回弹,综指才能避开进入跌势中。


FBM KLCI 01 December 2010
As indicated by A, the FBM KLCI attempt to rebound on Wednesday, but it is resisted by the 1487 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement, which is the immediate resistance. At the close, the KLCI gained 0.19 of a point at 1485.42. Support for the KLCI is at 1460 and the resistance are found at 1487 followed by 1500.

Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands only expanded 6%, and if the Bollinger Bands should begin to contract, the KLCI would consolidate further, without forming a downtrend yet. However, immediate technical outlook shall remains on the negative side until the KLCI could break above the Bollinger Middle Band.

As indicated by B, total market volume fell 12.75%, with volume staying below the 40-day volume moving average. This shows that the market confidence is relatively low, and it is normal for the direction of the KLCI is unclear now.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic is testing 30%, and since it has not fallen below 30%, it is not showing a short term bearish signal yet. Generally, if the Stochastic should stay around 50%, the KLCI is likely to move sideways for the short term.

With the KLCI staying below the Bollinger Middle Band, as well as the 14, 21, 31 EMA, technical outlook for the KLCI is on the lower side. Fortunately, the downside movement of the KLCI was insignificant, thus the KLCI not yet forming a downtrend.
HAPPY TRADING

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