Technical Anakysis : 综合指数 2010年12月16日 / FMKLCI 16/12/2010

综合指数 2010年 12月 16日
如图中箭头A所示，富时综合指数跌破布林中频带的动态支持线，显示综指的走势有转弱的迹象，惟布林频带（Bollinger Bands）收窄14%，所以技术上综指仍然属于调整巩固中，直到布林频带明显的打开，才能确认转弱的趋势。

综指也同时跌破了1500点的心理支持水平，所以综指接下来的支持水平下调至1487点的费氏线，阻力水平则下调至1500点以及1525点。

图中箭头B所示，虽然综指下跌，不过马股成交量却增加13.96%，这显示综指虽然在投资者套利下走低，不过仍然有相当多的投资者选择买入，这使到成交量增加至40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）。接下来若持续有买盘涌入的话，那综指有望短期内收复失地，避开进一步下跌。

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）分别跌破了70%以及30%，这表示综指的短期走势转弱，接下来若随机指标未能迅速回弹至30%以上，综指的短期走势将有维持在短期下跌的格局。

与此同时，布林频带目前仍然保持一个收窄的格局，所以综指目前仍然算是调整巩固的格局中，直到布林频带明显打开为止。无论如何，综指亦跌破了14、21、31天的加权移动平均线（EMA），所以综指继续在短期内回弹至EMA以上，那综指才能有望避开进入跌势的格局。

FBM KLCI 16 December 2010
As indicated by A, the FBM KLCI fell below the Bollinger Middle Band, and the immediately technical outlook for the KLCI is now turning to negative. Fortunately, the Bollinger Bands is stil contracting (14%), and this suggests that the KLCI is still consolidating.

Meanwhile, the KLCI also fell below the 1500 mark by margin, and if the KLCI should failed to come back to above 1500, the next support is seen at 1487 while the resistance is at 1525.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 13.96%. Generally, the rising of volume during a decline is not a good sign, for it represents an increased of selling pressure. Therefore, if market volume should continue to increase while the KLCI is falling, it would further dampen the market sentiment.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic breaks below 30%, entering the short term bearish territory. If the Stochastic should stay below 30%, the market movement for the short term is expected to be weak.

Immediate technical outlook turns to negative as the KLCI retreated sharply on Thursday. The KLCI fell below the 14, 21, 31 EMA by margin, and if the KLCI should stay below the 14, 21, 31 EMA, the uptrend would come to an end.

HAPPY TRADING