FBMKLCI WEEKLY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 17/12/2010 / 每周技术分析 2010年12月17日

Weekly Analysis FBMKLCI 17/12/2010 For the week ended on the 17th of December, 2010, the KLCI fell a total of 7.4 points, with a weekly high of 1517.15 and a weekly low of 1495.20, total market volume traded was 5,864,912,400 shares, gained 17.57%.

Main Chart: Profit taking pulled the KLCI lower last week, and the KLCI fell below the Bollinger Middle Band, as well as marginally below the 14, 21, 31 EMA. However, it is still too soon to call for a bearish trend. Support for the KLCI is found at 1476 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement while the resistance is at 1525 to 1532 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement.

Volume: As indicated by B, total market volume was basically lower, mostly below the 40-day Volume Moving Average. This suggests that the market was lightly participated, as investors confidence was relatively lower. However, it is rather normal to have lower volume as the KLCI is consolidating.

Bollinger Bands: With the KLCI breaking below the Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate technical outlook for the KLCI is now on the negative side. However, due to the contraction of the Bollinger Bands, the KLCI is expected to consolidate further.

MACD: The MACD histogram stopped rising on Wednesday, and started falling since. Therefore, the MACD histogram is now forming a Rounding Top, and provided that the MACD histogram is still falling, it means that the KLCI is gradually losing strength.

WinChart RSI: Despite breaking above 50%, the WinChart RSI failed to rise further, and at the moment, still showing a mid term neutral signal, slightly above 50%. This suggests that the KLCI is likely to stay in a sideways movement.

Stochastic: As indicated by C, the Stochastic fell below 30%, entered the short term bearish territory. If the Stochastic should remain below 30%, the market movement for the short term is expected to be weak.

In a Nut Shell: The KLCI took a dip last week, but it is too soon to call for any bearish trend formation. The KLCI is likely to consolidate further.

每周技术分析 2010年12月17日

富时综合指数上周以1511.82开市，全周最高水平是1517.15点，最低则是1495.20点，综指上周以1499.88点闭市，按周下滑7.4点或0.49%，总成交量为58亿6491万2400股，按周增加17.57%。

主要指标－图

形综指上周因套利活动而出现技术调整，这使到综指跌破了布林中频带，甚至稍微跌破14、21、31 天综合加权移动平均线（Exponential Moving Average - EMA）的动态支持线。不过，综指周五稍微回弹，所以综指还未确认形成跌势。综指支持水平落在1476点的费氏线，阻力水平则是1525至1532点的费氏线。

布林频带

如图所示，综指跌破了布林中频带（Bollinger Band），不过所幸的是布林频带仍然在收窄中，这表示综指目前仍然处于盘整格局中，同时也在酝酿着一个新的走势，直到布林频带重新打开为止，届时再以综指所处于布林中频带的相对位置来判断综指是否能恢复上扬格局还是开始转弱。

技术指标

成交量

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量上周开始偏低，几乎全周的成交量都处于40天的成交量平均线（VMA）以下，这表示马股交投处于淡静。不过，一般上当大势处于盘整格局时，成交量偏低是很正常的。不过，若综指要恢复上扬格局，那就需要更多的成交量，届时才能有足够的承接力来扶持综指（或大势）上扬。

平均乖离

平均乖离（MACD）的振荡指标（Histogram）上周上周三停止上扬，而且随后开始转弱。因此，平均乖离振荡指标有形成圆顶（Rounding Top）的可能。若平均乖离振荡指标形成圆顶的话，那便是综指继续处于技术调整的讯号。

胜图强弱指标

胜图强弱指标（WinChart RSI）上周虽然上扬突破50%，但由于综指出现技术调整，因此胜图强弱指标也无法上扬。目前胜图强弱指标正处于50%水平左右，这表示创业板中期走势偏向于盘整的格局。

随机指标

随机指标（Stochastic）上周下跌，并跌破了30%水平，进入了短期弱势区域里。接下来若随机指标继续处于30%水平以下，那综指短期的走势将继续看淡，直到随机指标上扬突破30%水平为止。

总结

总的来说，综指因套利活动而短期开始走软，不过综指还未确认形成跌势，这是因为布林频带仍然在收窄中。无论如何，接下来若布林频带重新打开时综指仍然处于布林中频带以下，届时综指将开始有转弱的风险。