Technical Analysis : 综合指数 2010年12月14日 / FBMKLCI 14/12/2010

综合指数 2010年 12月 14日
如图中箭头A所示，富时综合指数稍微上扬0.79点，以1510.58点闭市，基本上综指是属于横摆巩固的格局，综指当前的阻力水平仍然是1525点及1532点的费氏线，支持水平则落在1500点的心理支持关口。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）再度收窄1%，这反复的稍微打开及收窄显示布林频带目前变化不大，通常这是综指横摆巩固所致。以技术而言，若布林频带出现收窄时，这将是综指酝酿新趋势的讯号，而综指将倾向于横摆巩固，直到布林频带重新打开为止。

图中箭头B所示，马股成交量稍微增加1.26%，所以成交量仍然略微低于40天成交量移动平均线（VMA），这显示马股整体市场仍然未达到活跃的水平；一般上，当综指开始摆脱横摆巩固并开始上扬时，若成交量届时才达到40天平均值并不算太迟。

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）依然保持在70%的水平，这显示综指的短期走势目前仍然略偏向上扬，惟布林频带目前仍然保持收窄的格局，所以综指上扬的趋势并未获得确认。

无论如何，接下来若随机指标跌破70%的水平，综指的短期上扬的趋势将宣告结束，直到随机指标再度返回70%为止。另一方面，综指当前仍然分别获得布林中频带以及14、21、31天加权移动平均线（EMA）的支持，所以综指的走势并未有转弱的趋势；换句话说，若综指接下来跌破这些动态支持线，综指的整体走势将会有转弱的风险。

FBM KLCI 14 Dec 2010
As indicated by A, the FBM KLCI rose 0.79 of a point to close at 1510.58 points. Basically, the KLCI is consolidating and the immediate resistance is seen at 1525 to 1532, while the support is at 1500 mark.
Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands contracted 1%, and this suggests a consolidation signal for the KLCI.

Technically, when the Bollinger Bands is contracting, it means that the KLCI is preparing for a new movement, until the re-expansion of the Bollinger Bands.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 1.26%, with volume below the 40-day Volume Moving Average. In other words, total market participation is still relatively low, and the market sentiment is less likely to sustain if volume should stay low.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic stays above 70%, in the short term bullish territory. This suggests that the short term movement of the KLCI is bullish biased.

In conclusion, the overall KLCI uptrend remains intact as the 14, 21, 31 EMA is still serving as the dynamic support. If the Bollinger Bands should re-expands with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, there is a good chance that the KLCI would test the 1532 resistance. Other wise, if the Bollinger Bands should re-expand with the KLCI below the Bollinger Middle Band, the short term bullish movement of the KLCI would be affected.

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