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Tuesday, September 7, 2010

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> FBMKLCI 06/09/2010 / 综合指数 2010年 09月 06日

FBM KLCI 06/09/2010
As indicated by A, the FBM KLCI is still resisted by the 1436 level. However, regional markets were gaining thus the KLCI loss on Monday was minimal. Resistance for the KLCI is at 1436 while the support is at 1400.
As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands contracted 2%, suggesting that the KLCI might be consolidating, and the direction of the KLCI is expected to be unclear until the re-expansion of the Bollinger Bands. Nevertheless, with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, the technical outlook is still positive.
As indicated by B, total market volume fell 19.3%, with volume breaking below the 40-day VMA level. Overall, market is lightly participated, as investors are staying on the sidelines while waiting for some fresh leads. Generally, it is rather normal to have lower volume as the market consolidate.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic is gradually falling but still above 70%, thus the short term bullish signal is still intact. If the Stochastic should break below 70%, it would be a signal suggesting a beginning of a technical correction.
In conclusion, although the KLCI is temporary resisted by 1436, immediate technical outlook for the KLCI is still positive, as it is still above the Bollinger Middle Band, as well as supported by the 14, 21, 31 EMA.

综合指数 2010年 09月 06日
如图中箭头A所示,富时综合指再度在1436点的阻力水平遇阻,惟区域股市纷纷上扬使到综指并未出现下跌的趋势。无论如何,1436点继续的成为综指当前的阻力水平,支持水平则是1400点的心理支持水平。

如图所示,布林频带(Bollinger Bands)收窄2%,这显示综指亦在抗拒出现下滑的趋势,所以综指暂时出现横摆的僵局,直到布林频带再度打开为止。无论如何,由于综指目前仍然处于布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band)以上,所以综指基本上仍然属于上扬的趋势中。

如图中箭头B所示,马股的成交量在综指出现横摆时减少19.3%,这使到成交量跌破了40天成交量移动平均线(VMA)的水平,这显示投资者开始谨慎,所以减少进场的数量,这出现在综指横摆巩固时是正常的。

如图中箭头C所示,随机指标(Stochastic)开始缓缓下滑,这显示综指的短期走势有开始转弱的可能,不过由于随机指标始终处于70%以上,所以目前还是没有确认此短期转弱趋势的讯号。以技术而言,综指还是能保持在一个短期上扬的格局,直到随机指标跌破70%为止。

总的来说,综指虽然在1436点遇阻,不过综指仍然受到外围因素的影响,投资者还是举棋不定,所以出现了横摆的格局。一般上,只要综指仍然在布林中频带及14、21、31天的加权移动平均线(EMA)上获得扶持,综指的走势基本上仍然偏向于上扬的。
HAPPY TRADING

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