TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> FBM KLCI 13/09/2010 / 综合指数 2010年 09月 13日

FBM KLCI 13/09/2010
As indicated by A, the FBM KLCI ended sharply higher on Monday, up 19.18 points or 1.3%, to close at 1456.96 points, marked a new high since 17th of January, 2008. Support for the KLCI is at 1436 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement while the resistance is at 1500 level.
As shown on the chart above, the KLCI is still above the Bollinger Middle Band, thus the immediate technical outlook is still bullish biased. However, the Bollinger Bands contracted 6%, thus not confirming the bullish signal.
As indicated by B, total market volume increased 87.5%, with volume touching the 40-day VMA level again. Generally, if volume should stay above the 40-day VMA level, the market is relatively active, thus the positive sentiment is likely to resume.
As indicated by C, the Stochastic rebounded and touched 100% again, signaling a short term over-heated condition again. Nevertheless, with the Stochastic above 70%, the short term movement of the KLCI is expected to be bullish biased.
In conclusion, the technical outlook for the KLCI is still bullish with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band as well as the 14, 21, 31 EMA. Therefore, the uptrend remains intact.


综合指数 2010年 09月 13日

如图中箭头A所示，富时综合指数受到区域及国际股市普遍上扬的鼓舞下，上扬19.18点或1.3%，以1456.96点闭市，写下自2008年01月17日来的新高水平。综指当前的支持水平是1436点的费氏线，阻力水平则是1500点的心理关口。
如图所示，综指在布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）获得扶持，所以综指仍然处于偏强的格局，惟布林频带（Bollinger Bands仍然）收窄6%，这减低了综指的涨幅。无论如何，接下来只要布林频带开始打开，那综指将有望继续上扬，重新进入上扬的趋势。
如图中箭头B所示，马股的成交量增加87.5%，这使到成交量重新达到40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）的水平，所以市场恢复健康的交易数量，这使到市场承接力量增加，将有助于综指继续的转强。
如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）再度上扬，并且触及100%的水平，虽然这显示市场的短期走势过热或超买，不过随机指标陆续的保持在短期超买亦是综指短期处于上扬趋势的特征。以技术而言，只要随机指标一日维持在70%以上，那综指的短期上扬趋势将继续维持下去，直到随机指标跌破70%为止。
总的来说，综指在布林中频带获得扶持后，再度上扬，接下来只待布林频带打开的确认。另一方面，综指亦继续的获得14、21、31天加权移动平均线（EMA）的扶持，这是综指一道重要的动态支持线，在技术分析的观点上，只要综指不跌破此EMA，综指将继续维持目前上扬的趋势。
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