TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> 综合指数 2010年 09月 24日/FBM KLCI 24/09/2010

综合指数 2010年 09月 24日

如图中箭头A所示，富时综合指数开市出现5.06点的下跌缺口（Gap），综指随后一度下探至1445.33点的全日最低水平，惟综指在闭市时回弹，收窄跌幅，以1451.19点闭市，按日下滑6.89点。综指当前的支持水平是1436及1424点的费氏线，阻力水平则是1480点的费氏线。

如图所示，综指跌破布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band），这显示综指有转弱的迹象，惟布林频带（Bollinger Bands）目前处于收窄的状态(-11%)，所以综指目前只是属于一个调整的格局，并未确认为跌势，直到布林频带重新打开为止。

如图中箭头B所示，马股的成交量暴涨72.8%，并且创下8个月来的新高水平，这显示虽然市场出现调整，尤其是蓝筹股项，不过投资者继续回笼，这使到市场交投量高。所幸的是综指并未大举下跌，所以成交量稍高并不算是加剧了综指的跌势。

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）跌破50%的水平，这显示综指的短期走势的确是处于下跌的格局。接下来若随机指标跌破30%，那将是综指确认形成短期跌势的讯号，换句话说，随机指标必须短期内回弹，综指的短期走势才有望避免进入下跌的趋势。

总的来说，综指的短期走势有形成跌势的迹象，惟成交量却增加，显示市场交投活跃，投资者也有转向非综指成份股的迹象。以中长期来看，综指仍然获得14、21、31天加权移动平均线（EMA）的支持，所以综指仍然属于上扬的格局；综指目前只能算是处于短期的调整格局.

FBM KLCI 24/09/2010

As indicated by A, the FBM KLCI opened gap down of 5.06 points on Friday, and had its intra-day low reaching 1445.33 points, but the KLCI managed to regain some of its losses to close at 1451.19 points, losing 6.89 points for the day. Resistance for the FBM KLCI is at 1480 level while the support are at 1436 followed by 1424 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement.

As shown on the chart above, the KLCI fell below the Bollinger Middle Band, with the immediate technical outlook turning slightly negative, however, the Bollinger Bands is contracting, thus suggesting that the KLCI might be consolidating, until the Bollinger Bands should re-expands.

As indicated by B, total market volume surged 72.8%, which marked an 8 months new high. This suggests some increased of bargain buying despite profit taking activities, and fortunately, the KLCI losses for the day was rather mild, thus there are no panic selling detected yet.

However, if the KLCI should start falling again, with huge volume, the selling pressure is likely to increase.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic break below 50%, suggesting that the KLCI short term is weakening. If the Stochastic should break below 30%, it would be a short term bearish signal for the KLCI.
In conclusion, the KLCI might be losing strength, but for the mid to longer term view, the uptrend remains intact with the 14, 21, 31 EMA still supporting the KLCI. Therefore, the recent retreat of the KLCI is only a technical correction.

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