FBM KLCI 03/09/2010 As indicated by A, the FBM KLCI retreated slightly on Friday, to close at 1435.67 points, fell 5.4 points. Since the KLCI is now testing the 1436 level, while falling marginally below this level, the immediate support for the KLCI shall remain at 1436 level.
As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands contracted 1%, suggesting that the KLCI is still consolidating. Generally, the target of a consolidation or a technical correction is the Bollinger Middle Band. With the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate technical outlook shall remain positive.
As indicated by B, total market volume fell 14.2%, but still above the 40-day VMA level. This suggests that the overall market is still actively participated, as the market sentiment as a whole is still on the positive side.As indicated by C, the MACD is still rising, suggesting that the KLCI is still trending up. Meanwhile, if the MACD histogram should form a Rounding Top, it would suggests that the KLCI is gradually losing strength in this uptrend.
In conclusion, the KLCI is testing the 1436 level, and if the KLCI should return to above 1436, and stand firmly above it, there is a good chance that the uptrend would carry on.
综合指数 2010年 09月 03日如图中箭头A所示，富时综合指数稍微回软，以1435.67点闭市，按日下滑5.4点。综指目前只稍微低于1436点的费氏阻力线，所以综指并未能确认是否跌破了1436点的支持水平，通常接下来若综指在短期内能重新回弹至1436点以上，综指仍然有望获得1436点的费氏线扶持。
如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）收窄1%，这表示综指目前仍然处于调整巩固的格局中，直到布林频带再度打开为止。一般上，当综指出现调整时，综指调整的第一个目标是布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band），综指也将有望在此获得扶持，所以布林中频带亦是综指当前的动态支持线。
如图中箭头B所示，马股的成交量在综指调整时减少14.2%，不过成交量仍然高于40天成交量移动平均线（VMA），这表示市场的交投仍然活跃，若成交量能继续的保持在40天平均值，这意味着市场有足够的承接力量，这将有助于市场吸纳套利的卖盘，使到综指维持在上扬的格局。如图中箭头C所示，平均乖离（MACD）继续缓缓的上扬，所以综指的中长期走势亦随之上扬，以中长期来说，综指将有望继续走高，直到平均乖离跌破零轴为止。不过综指的短期走势则视乎平均乖离的振荡指标（Histogram），若振荡指标形成一个圆顶（Rounding Top），那综指短期将出现调整的走势。
总的来说，综指仍然处于1436点的水平左右，所以综指仍然有被此费氏线阻碍而下滑的风险。所以接下来综指必须上扬，再度企于1436点以上，综指才能避开这阻力，上探更高的水平。
HAPPY WEEKEND
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