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Wednesday, September 15, 2010

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> 综合指数 2010年 09月 14日 / Composite Index 14/09/2010

综合指数 2010年 09月 14日
富时综合指数在蓝筹股的带领下走高,综指以1474.44点闭市,按日上扬17.48点,写下自2008年1月15日来的新高水平,综指当前的阻力水平仍然是1500点的心理阻力关口,支持水平则是1436点的费氏线以及布林中频带的动态支持线。
如图所示,布林频带(Bollinger Bands)打开21%,而综指始终处于布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band)以上,所以综指继续上扬趋势,这亦是布林频带上扬趋势持续的讯号,直到布林频带打开的幅度减少或收窄为止。
如图中箭头B所示,马股的成交量增加23.4%,所以成交量继续的处于40天成交量移动平均线(VMA)以上,这是市场交投活跃的讯号,通常在指数上扬时,成交量增加亦表示市场的承接力量增加,这对综指继续转强有着正面的作用。
如图中箭头C所示,随机指标(Stochastic)在触及100%,这显示综指的短期走势在上冲后有过热的风险。无论如何,只要此技术调整卖压获得良好的吸纳,综指始终能保持在短期的上扬趋势里,直到随机指标跌破70%为止。
综指目前6月17日以来一直企于14、21、31天加权移动平均线(EMA)以上,所以综指一直维持在上扬的格局中,以技术而言,综指将继续保持目前的趋势,直到综指跌破此EMA为止。接下来,综指的短期走势也将保持上扬的格局,直到布林频带打开的幅度开始减低或收窄为止。
Composite Index 14/09/2010
The KLCI continued its rally, lead by blue chips, closing at 1474.44 points, gaining 17.48 points and marked a new high since 15th of January, 2008. Resistance for the KLCI is at 1500 level while the support is at 1436 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement, as well as the Bollinger Middle Band.
As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands expanded 21%, with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, thus the technical signal is positive. In short, provided that the KLCI could maintain above the Bollinger Middle Band, the technical outlook shall remains positive.
As indicated by B, total market volume increased 23.4%, with volume above the 40-day VMA level. This suggests that the market sentiment as a whole is still positive.
As indicated by C, the Stochastic touched 100% again, which implies that the short term movement of the KLCI is now over-heated again. But nevertheless, provided that the Stochastic is above 70%, the short term movement for the KLCI is still bullish biased.
In conclusion, the KLCI is firmly above the 14, 21, 31 EMA, since 17th of June, and this is the long term dynamic support for the KLCI uptrend. With the bullish Bollinger Bands signal, together with the 14, 21, 31 EMA, supporting the KLCI, the uptrend remains intact.
HAPPY TRADING

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