Composite Index 12/03/2010After being resisted by the L1 line, the FBM KLCI continues to fall on Friday, losing another 10.23 points to close at 1311.20 points. As indicated by A, the FBM KLCI is precisely supported by the 1308 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement, thus this is the immediate support for the KLCI, while resistance is at 1354 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement.
As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands contracted 7%, suggesting that the KLCI is consolidating, and the target of its consolidation is at the Bollinger Middle Band. Generally, if the KLCI should rebound from the Bollinger Middle Band, there is a chance that the KLCI might resume its uptrend. Otherwise, if the KLCI should break below the Bollinger Middle Band, the rally would come to an end.
As indicated by B, total market volume declined 9.6%, with volume below the 40-day VMA level. The lower market volume implies that the market sentiment is not at the ideal level yet, and it is quite normal to have lower volume during a consolidation.As indicated by C, the Stochastic breaks below 70% level, and ended the short term bullish signal. If the Stochastic should rebound to above 70% level in the immediate term, the short term bullish would resume.
In conclusion, the KLCI managed to found its temporary support at 1308 Fibonacci Retracement, but it has to rebound to confirm the validity of this support. If the KLCI should break below this level, the next support for the KLCI is found at 1270 level.
综合指数 2010年 03月 12日富时综合指数自在L1的上升趋势阻力线遇阻后进一步下滑，综指按日下跌10.23点，以1311.20点闭市。如图中箭头A所示，综指精确的在1308点的费氏线获得扶持，这将继续成为综指当前的支持水平，阻力水平则维持在1354点的费氏阻力线。
如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）收窄7%，所以综指持续调整，继续迈向布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）这动态支持线。一般上，只要综指能继续的在布林中频带上扬获得扶持，那综指将有望恢复上扬的趋势，换句话说，若综指跌破布林中频带，综指将开始转弱。
如图中箭头B所示，马股成交量进一步萎缩9.6%，所以成交量继续低于40天成交量移动平均线（VMA），这是投资者开始采取观望态度所致的。无论如何，这在综指进行调整或巩固时是正常的。如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）下滑跌破70%的水平，这表示综指的短期走势开始转弱，换句话说，若随机指标短期内未能反弹重新回到70%以上的话，那综指的短期走势将继续处于调整的格局。
总的来说，综指盘整精确的在1308点的费氏暂时获得扶持，惟综指必须短期内回弹，才能确认综指是否能止跌。无论如何，由于布林中频带将与1308点的费氏线重叠，所以预料综指将有望在此水平获得一定的扶持，若综指跌破此支持水平，综指的支持水平将下调至1300点至1270点的水平。
HAPPY WEEKEND & GOODLUCK2ALL
CYA MONDAY
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