TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> 综合指数 2010年 03月 / Composite Index 08/03/2010 08日 /

综合指数 2010年 03月 08日
由于受到道指及区域股市上扬的刺激，蓝筹股项在投资者的追捧下，富时综合指数以1312.18点挂开，出现了12.4点的缺口（Gap），综指随后上扬至1324.22点，按日上扬24.44点或1.9%，并且写下了自2008年3月3日来的两年新高。综指当前的阻力水平是1354点的费氏线，支持水平则落在1300点的心理支持水平。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）打开39%，由于综指依然处于布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）以上，所以综指进一步挺升；一般上，只要布林频带继续的打开，综指将有望维持上扬的格局，直到布林频带打开的幅度减少或收窄为止。

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量增长23%，这使到成交量成功的突破了40天成交量移动平均线（VMA），这显示投资者继续回笼，所以综指在增加的承接力下走高。以技术而言，只要成交量能继续维持在40天成交量平均值以上的话，那任何套利的卖压将有望获得良好的吸纳，从而推高综指。

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）继续处于70%以上，所以综指的短期走势亦继续保持在一个上扬的格局，通常综指短期上扬趋势将有望持续下去，直到随机指标跌破70%为止。

总的来说，由于布林频带进一步打开，所以综指延续之前的走势，继续的上探，这也与国际走势息息相关，所以综指接下来的后市继续受到外围因素以及布林频带能否继续维持打开的影响。接下来若布林频带打开幅度减少或开始收窄，那将是综指的涨势进入调整或巩固的讯号。

Composite Index 08/03/2010
On Monday, with the positive performance of the regional markets, the KLCI was lead by Finance blue chip counters, breaking above 1308 resistance with an opening gap, to close at 1324.22, gaining 24.44 points or 1.9%. The KLCI marked a new high since March 2008. Resistance for the KLCI is now at 1354 Fibonacci Retracement while the support is at 1300 level.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands expanded 39%, with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, thus giving a bullish signal. Generally, provided that the Bollinger Bands is still expanding with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, the bullish movement is expected to carry on.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 23%, with volume breaking above the 40-day VMA level. This suggests that the market in general is regaining some confidence, and if volume should remain above the 40-day VMA level, the positive market sentiment is expected to carry on.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic remains above 70% level, in the short term bullish territory. Therefore, this suggests that the short term movement of the KLCI is still bullish biased, until the Stochastic should break below 70% level.

In conclusion, with the KLCI breaking above the 1300 level, together with the bullish Bollinger Bands signal, the immediate outlook is set to be bullish. If the Bollinger Bands should begin to contract, or the expansion rate should reduce, the KLCI is likely to consolidate again.