ZLBT Chats

Tuesday, March 16, 2010

Bull Chips Battle Back In Eleventh-Hour Rebound

Blues Led Dow Rebound From Red To Green
Stocks wallowed in the red for most of the session today, thanks to escalating concerns about the health of the global economy. In the East, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao noted the country's difficult task of simultaneously managing "inflation expectations" while promoting economic growth, which accelerated fears that China's central bank will take further steps to curb lending. Elsewhere, Moody's Investors Service added fuel to the bearish fire, warning of ratings-related risks for a slew of economic powerhouses, including France, Germany, Great Britain, and the U.S.

Nevertheless – and despite lingering jitters ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest-rate policy meeting tomorrow – the blue chips battled back in the final hour of trading, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average muscling higher by the close.
The Dow (DJIA – 10,642.15) recovered from an early deficit to add 17.5 points, or 0.2%, marking the index's fifth straight day of gains. Caterpillar led the 11 declining blue chips, while Wal-Mart paced the 18 advancing issues following an upgrade to "buy" at Citigroup; shares of Bank of America finished right where they began.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 Index (SPX – 1,150.51) eked out a gain of 0.5 point, or 0.1%, to close just a hair's breadth north of the 1,150 level. However, despite a valiant rebound attempt, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP – 2,362.21) wasn't as fortunate as its broad-market brethren, swallowing a loss of 5.5 points, or 0.2%, by the close.

I am not sure I really call a 17 point gain a sign of strength but the Dow did at least manage to rebound from its lows. The charts are signalling the indexes are still showing overbought readings.

While The Nasdaq remain above it's January high, the SPX is challenging its former highs and the Dow has yet to mount an assault. That is the same technical picture we have seen for the whole of last week (though it feels like an eternity). The obvious change here is that I have added short-term trendlines to highlight the current trends. Simple trendlines like this have many failings in terms of being predictive tools but I stIn other words, they offer an easy way to gauge when the speed of a trend may be changing. With the indexes overbought, this gives a quick way to judge any pullbacks or consolidations thus suggesting we may not even see a pullback this week.

Have a nice trading day &GOODLUCK2ALL

Crude Oil Futures
Crude oil futures tumbled to a near two-week nadir today, as concerns about both China's monetary policy and the debt ratings of a few economic powerhouses fueled the dollar higher. In addition, anxiety ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest-rate meeting bolstered the greenback into the black, making dollar-denominated commodities – like crude oil – more expensive for holders of foreign currencies. By the close, crude oil for April delivery gave up $1.44, or 1.8%, to settle at $79.80 per barrel.

GOLD Futures
A dismal day in the equities market boded well for gold futures today, as investors flocked to less risky assets. Concerns about the sovereign debt of big-time economic bodies escalated gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, which offset the dollar's typically negative impact on the malleable metal. By the close, April-dated gold futures added $3.70, or 0.3%, to finish at $1,105.40 an ounce.

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