TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >> Composite Index 03/03/2010 / 综合指数 2010年 03月 03日

Composite Index 03/03/2010
As indicated by A, the FBM KLCI retreated after testing the 1288.66 Fibonacci Retracement.

Therefore, the resistance for the KLCI remains at 1288.66 Fibonacci Retracement, while the support is at 1276.38 and 1266.45 Fibonacci Retracement.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands only expanded 1%, suggesting that the upside movement of the KLCI is being capped. If the Bollinger Bands should begin to contract, it would be a signal suggesting a consolidation for the KLCI. Meanwhile, the Bollinger Middle Band is still serving as the dynamic support for the KLCI, thus the immediate technical outlook is still positive.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 2.9%, but failed to reach the 40-day VMA level. Therefore, the market participation as a whole is still insufficient, as investors confidence is still relatively low.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic is falling gradually, suggesting that the KLCI short term is losing some strength. However, since the Stochastic is still above the 70% level, the short term bullish signal remains intact.

In conclusion, with the KLCI resisted by the 1288.66 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement, and the insufficient market participation, the KLCI is due for a consolidation or a correction. And if the KLCI should remains supported by the Bollinger Middle Band after the possible correction, there is still a good chance that the KLCI would resume its uptrend.

综合指数 2010年 03月 03日
如图中箭头A所示，富时综合指数再度上探1288.66点的费氏阻力线，无论如何，综指还是未能上扬突破1288.66点的阻力，综指随后回软，按日下滑1.97点，以1286.10点闭市。综指当前的阻力水平依然维持在1288.66点的费氏线，支持水平则是1276.38点及1266.45点的费氏线。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）打开的幅度减低至1%，这显示综指的涨势受到阻扰，若布林频带接下来出现收窄的话，那综指将有出现技术调整的可能，届时布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）将成为综指的动态支持线，一般上，只要综指能继续维持在布林中频带的话，那综指只是出现技术调整而已。

如图中箭头B所示，马股的总成交量稍微增加2.9%，所以成交量仍然未能达到40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）的水平，这显示综指仍然缺乏足够的交投量，所以综指的涨势后继不足。

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）缓缓下滑，这表示综指的短期走势停止上扬，不过只要随机指标一日不跌破70%，那综指的短期涨势仍然未被破坏。

总的来说，综指的短期走势二度在1288.66点的费氏线遇阻，再加上成交量低于40天的平均值，所以综指有出现技术调整的迹象。接下来若布林频带开始收窄，那综指将被确认出现技术调整，届时布林中频带将是综指重要的支持线，若综指跌破布林中频带，那综指的后市将看低一线。