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Wednesday, April 27, 2011

WALL STREET : Earnings, Consumer Confidence Fuel the Bulls' Fire

DJIA, S&P 500 Assail New Heights
Nasdaq approached 10-year-high territory
After kicking off the week on a timid note on Monday, stocks blazed a more defined -- and unarguably bullish -- path today. A round of well-received earnings reports got the buyers' ball rolling, with solid showings from 3M Company, Ford Motor, and UPS inspiring optimism about the fiscal health of U.S. big caps. In the same vein, a rosy report on consumer confidence, as well as a dividend hike from tech titan IBM Corp., only stoked the bullish flames. As the Street adopted a "carpe diem" attitude, the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) looming policy decision was put on the proverbial backburner, with all three major market indexes tagging fresh multi-year peaks by the close.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA – 12,595.37) skyrocketed right out of the gate, topping out at 12,613.16 -- its loftiest level since June 2008 -- before ending with a gain of 115.5 points, or 0.9%. Only six of the Dow's 30 components bucked the trend, with Bank of America leading the black sheep with a loss of 1.7%. Meanwhile, Caterpillar paced the bullish majority with a gain of 2.9%, while tech concerns Cisco Systems and Intel Corp. each tacked on a respectable 2.5%.

The S&P 500 Index (SPX – 1,347.24) rallied as high as 1,349.55 -- in territory not explored in nearly three years -- before settling on a gain of nearly 12 points, or 0.9%. Not to be outdone, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP – 2,847.54) soared to 2,856.61 -- its highest price since October 2007, and within striking distance of a 10-year acme -- before trimming its lead to 21.7 points, or 0.8%, by the close.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Dow Jones Industrial Average
The Dow closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off the 2009 low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the aforementioned rally, monthly resistance crossing at 13,136 is the next upside target. Closes below last Monday's low crossing at 12,093 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 12,605. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 13,136. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,368. Second support is last Monday's low crossing at 12,093.

Black Gold ended red in volatile session
Crude futures ended a volatile session in the red today, as traders exercised caution ahead of the FOMC's policy decision tomorrow. Earlier in the session, black gold explored positive territory thanks to an ailing greenback and news of refinery outages in Texas City. By the close, crude oil for June delivery gave up 7 cents, or 0.1%, to settle at $112.21 per barrel.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
June crude oil closed slightly lower due to light profit taking on Tuesday as it consolidated some of last week's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June renews the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2009-decline crossing at 121.09 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 105.98 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a larger-degree decline into early-May. First resistance is this month's high crossing at 114.05. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2009-decline crossing at 121.09. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 109.29. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 105.98.
HAPPY TRADING

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