FKLI Daily and Weekly Reviews + Technical Analysis

FKLI closing for the week ended on the 15th of April, 2011

The FBM KLCI Futures Spot Month contract fell a total of 31.5 points week to-date with a weekly high of 1554.5 and a weekly low of 1510.5 points. Total market volume traded was 39,568 compared with previous week 25,575 contracts done.

FKLI Charts : Daily & Weekly >>> Last week, the FKLI (from Daily Chart) broke below the 1515 Support at the 50 MA and then rebounded in a failed attempt to reclaim the MA 30 line at 1520.5. It however, bounced off the intraday low of 1511.5 and closed the week at 1519.0 last Friday.The immediate daily technical supports for the FKLI is seen at the 50 MA 1515.0 mark and at the Daily Fibonacci Retracement 38.2% mark or 1511.0 rounded. The outlook for the daily FKLI is on the neutral/bearish zone, with the more daily supports at the psychological 1500 followed by 1494 Fibonacci Retracement 23.6%.

FKLI Weekly Support are noted in the 15, 25, 35 EMA or prefered Bollinger Bands 38.2% & 23.6% Retracements.

Weekly Volume: Total daily and weekly market volume increased significantly, and this suggests that the market participation has rises drastically but not dramatically. In other words, with lower weekly prices coupled with a higher volume indicates the bears are in the driver's seat henceforth, the market is less likely to pick up any strength until a reversal candle or some positive technicals starts emerging.. From the weekly FKLI chart >>> none spotted to-date.

Weekly Bollinger Bands: With the weekly FKLI staying slightly below the Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate technical outlook is on the neutral/weak side. If the Bollinger Bands should continue to expand while the FKLI stays below the Bollinger Middle Band, more downside movement is expected for the FKLI. On a brighter note, in the weekly chart, no expansions noted in the BB. But as next week approaches FKLI traders are alerted to be on their toes in readiness for a full scale bear assault.

MACD Daily & Weekly : The Daily MACD histogram is still falling, and the falling of the MACD histogram suggests that the FKLI is losing strength, thus the FKLI short term movement is expected to be weak.
The Weekly Histogram has also shown some weakening signs but far from a total collapse. However, do not take the market for granted. This is the first negative weekly Histogram for the past 6 weeks.
Note : Both the daily & weekly MACD are still above the Zero Line aka the Trigger Line. technically optimistical still, but not infallable.
RSI Daily & Weekly : Up till the closing last Friday, the Daily RSI failed to rises above 70%, thus not able to sustain its mid term strength signal. For now, the Daily RSI is below the 50% margin thus suggesting that the mid term movement of the FKLI is at neutral > weak mode. For the FKLI to strengthen, the Daily RSI nust rise to the 70% or above level. Anything less will result in FKLI traders selling into strength.

Weekly RSI have not revisited the 70% margin since the 1579.5 weekly high of 16 Jan 2011. The Weekly RSI 14-days period closed at 53.8 slightly above the neutral 50. The bull defenders are in for a rough & tough week ahead.

Stochastics Daily & Weekly : As shown in the Daily FKLI Chart, the Stochastic stays below 30%, in short term bear country. This suggests that the short term movement of the Daily FKLI is expected to remain below average strength, and the weakness is expected to continue, until the Stochastic should break above 30%.

The Weekly Stochastic remains above the 50% mark at 63.2 even after the appearance of an Evening Star as per mentioned in last week's analysis report. An Evening Star candlestick is a possible trend reversal and reversed the FKLI it did. Bulls were also badly ruffled with the Dead Cross sell signal at the Weekly Stoch previous week of April 08. The bulls suffered a 31.5 points loss week to-date. Nevertheless, the Weekly Stoch at 63.2 level indicated the bulls are not all dead and gone. A glimmer of hope for an uptrend is optimistic albeit weakened.

Summarizing the week before & after : Although immediate technical outlook for the FKLI turns weaker, the FKLI has not formed a downtrend, just yet. A little bearish reversal maybe nothing which is the option rather than the norm. The bulls are not yet annihilated not by a long sho(r)t.

For now, the best scenario for the FKLI is to extend its trading range or sideways consolidation and hunker down until the FBMKLCI has consolidated sufficiently for without sufficient cash market participation, a strong FKLI movement is unlikely. The discount to cash is scripted correctly. FKLI buyers are adviced to KIV any bullish mindset until the FBMKLCI or cash market gets a second wind.

Bursa Malaysia is still consolidating. Period.

HAPPY TRADING & GOODLUCK2ALL