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Saturday, April 16, 2011

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS : 综合指数 2011年04月15日 / FBMKLCI 15/04/2011

综合指数 2011年 04月 15日
如图所示,富时大马综合指数(综指)周五继续下调,并稍微跌破1525点的费氏支持线,按日失守3.86点或0.25%,以1521.94点挂收。由于综指只是稍微跌破1525点的费氏线,因此1525点的费氏线还未能成为综指当前的阻力水平。综指当前阻力水平依然是1537点的费氏线,支持水平则是1513点的费氏线。

如图中箭头B所示,马股总成交量周五进一步的减少(减少5.26%),因此成交量明显的处于40天的成交量平均线(VMA)以下。一般来说,当成交量偏低是,综指(或马股)走势多半是偏弱或维持在盘整格局中,暂时未有转强的迹象。

如图中C圈所示,随机指标(Stochastic)继续处于30%水平以下的短期弱势区域里了,这表示综指当前短期的走势将继续的偏弱的,直到随机指标成功上扬突破30%水平为止。

总的来说,综指当前依然处于短期偏弱的格局,但却还未有形成跌势的特征或讯号,直到综指形成较低高峰(Lower-High)及跌破1480点的重要支持水平为止。无论如何,以技术而言,只要综指继续处于14、21、31天EMA以下,那走势都将会是偏弱的。

FBM KLCI 15 April 2011
As indicated by A, the KLCI fell 3.86 points or 0.25% lower to close at 1521.94 point, breaking below the 1525 by a small margin. Since the KLCI is only marginally below the 1525 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement, the 1525 could not serve as the resistance for the KLCI yet, and the resistance shall remain at 1537, and the support is at 1513 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement.

As indicated by B, total market volume fell 5.26%, with volume below the 40-day Volume Moving Average. This has clearly shown that the market is indeed quiet, thus suggesting that the inflow of fresh capital is low. Therefore, the KLCI is less likely to regain its strength.

As circled at C, the Stochastic remains below 30%, in the short term bearish territory. This suggests that the market movement for the short term is expected to be weak, until the Stochastic could successfully break above 30%.

In conclusion, the short term movement of the KLCI is still weak, while the KLCI has not formed any downtrend yet. Technically, the KLCI would have to form a lower-high, and then breaking below the 1480 important support, then it is only a reversal.
HAPPY WEEKEND

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