TECHNICAL ANALYSIS : 综合指数 2011年04月21日 / FBMKLCI 21/04/2011

综合指数 2011年 04月 21日
如图中箭头A所示，富时大马综合指数（综指）周四一度在14、21、31天综合加权移动平均线（Exponential Moving Average – EMA）以上开始，不过最后却再次跌破14、21、31天EMA，以1526.33点挂收，按日下跌4.69点或0.31%。因此这表示综指还未能成功突破14、21、31天EMA。

另一方面，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）还未打开，这表示综指基本上还未形成新的趋势，而继续有维持在盘整格局的迹象。无论如何，综指阻力水平落在1537.77点的费氏线，支持水平则是1513.56点的费氏线，及1498或1500点的水平。

 如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量周四增加8%，这使到成交量稍微突破40天的成交量平均线（VMA）。接下来若成交量能继续维持在40天的成交量平均线以上，那表示马股整体上的交投恢复到健康的水平。一般是，若成交量能继续维持在40天的VMA以上，那将有助于马股的整体的表现。

如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）再次跌破30%水平，这表示综指短期有再次进入偏弱格局的风险。以技术而言，只要随机指标继续处于30%水平，那综指接下来短期的走势将是偏弱的。

总的来说，综指至今还未形成任何趋势，而继续有维持在盘整格局的迹象。无论如何，投资者可以留意综指接下来是否形成较高底（Higher-Low），转强的先兆；还是较低高峰（Lower-High），转弱的首个特征。

FBM KLCI 21 April 2011
As indicated by A, the FBM KLCI opened above the 14, 21, 31 EMA, but it failed to sustain its gains, and at the close, losing 4.69 points or 0.31%, at 1526.33 points, and failed to stay above the 14, 21, 31 EMA.

Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands has not expanded clearly, thus this suggests that the KLCI is still in a consolidation mood. Nevertheless, resistance for the KLCI is at 1537.77 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement while the support is at 1513.56 and 1498 or 1500 level.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 8%, with volume breaking above the 40-day Volume Moving Average by margin. If volume should stay above the 40-day Volume Moving Average, it means that the market participation is at a 'healthy' level, which usually implies an improvement of the market sentiment.

As circled at C, the Stochastic retreated, and back below 30%, and if the Stochastic should stay below 30%, this suggests that the market movement for the short term is likely to be weak.

In short, the KLCI has not formed any new trend. Readers could monitor if the KLCI should later form a higher-low (early characteristic of an uptrend), or a lower-high (an early sign of weakness.)

HAPPY TRADING