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Wednesday, April 20, 2011

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS : 综合指数 2011年04月20日 / FBMKLCI 20/04/2011

综合指数 2011年 04月 20日
如图中箭头A所示,富时大马综合指数(综指)再次上探14、21、31天综合加权移动平均线(Exponential Moving Average – EMA)的动态阻力线,按日上扬9.49点或0.62%。要是综指能够上扬突破14、21、31天EMA,那下一道阻力水平将是1538点的费氏线。支持水平依然是1513点及1498或1500点的整数点。

如图中箭头B所示,马股总成交量增加22.2%,但却还未到达40天的成交量平均线(VMA)。无论如何,接下来要是成交量能继续上扬,并且突破40天的VMA,那表示马股的交投再次活跃起来,届时将有利于马股整体的表现。

如图中C圈所示,随机指标(Stochastic)稍微上扬突破30%水平,有摆脱短期弱势的迹象。接下来若随机指标能继续上扬的话,那表示综指摆脱短期偏弱的走势。至于综指短期能转强,那就要看随机指标接下来能否上扬突破70%水平。

总的来说,综指有摆脱短期偏弱的迹象。接下来若综指能重返14、21、31天EMA以上,那综指有望形成较高底(higher-low),也就是涨势形成的第一个技术调整,而下一个重要条件,就是突破1566及1577点的新高水平,届时综指才能恢复2009年以来的涨势.

FBM KLCI 20 April 2011
As indicated by A, the FBM KLCI tested the 14, 21, 31 EMA again, gaining 9.49 points or 0.62%. If the KLCI could successfully break above the 14, 21, 31 EMA, the next resistance for the KLCI would be found at 1538 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement. Support for the KLCI remains at 1513 followed by the 1489 or 1500 level.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 22.2%, but it has not broken above the 40-day Volume Moving Average. If volume could break above the 40-day Volume Moving Average, it means that the market participation is improving, and it would help lifting the market sentiment as a whole.

As circled at C, the Stochastic breaks above 30% by margin, and it is about to break away from the short term weakness status. If the Stochastic could continue rising, the KLCI short term movement would be back to neutral. As for short term bullishness, the Stochastic would have to break and stay above 70%.

In short, the KLCI is breaking away from its short term weakness, and if the KLCI could successfully break above the 14, 21, 31 EMA, it would be forming a higher-low, which is a sign of an improvement of technical outlook. But as for whether the KLCI could resume its uptrend which started in 2009, the KLCI would have to break above the 1566 and 1577 resistance.

HAPPY TRADING

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