Due to the over-night correction of the US market, the KLCI experienced a slightly stronger selling pressure on Thursday, with its intra-day low reaching 1544.96 points. However, the KLCI started to regain some of its earlier losses in the afternoon session, while managed to close slightly above the 1551 WinChart automatic Fibonacci retracement. Support for the KLCI remains at 1551 WinChart automatic Fibonacci retracement while the resistance is at 14, 21, 31 EMA dynamic resistance followed by the 1568 WinChart automatic Fibonacci retracement.
As indicated by B, total market volume increased about 1% on Thursday, with volume still above the 40-day volume moving average. This suggests that the market is actively participated. However, due to an obvious higher number of losers over winners, it suggests that the selling pressure was rather strong on Thursday.
As indicated by C, the Stochastic stays below the 30% level, and this suggests that the short term movement of the KLCI is still weak.
In conclusion, after breaking below the L1 uptrend line, the KLCI short term movement has been staying week, and together with the sensitive reaction of regional markets to the worry of default of the US, the KLCI is less likely to regain its strength. Technically, as long as the KLCI is still below the 14, 21, 31 EMA, the technical outlook for the KLCI shall stay negative. Next support for the KLCI is at 1500 psychological level.
综合指数 2011年 07月 28日
由于隔夜美国大幅度下调，导致马股周四出现偏强的套利活动。如图中箭头A所示，富时大马综合指数（综指）周四虽然一度下滑至1544.96点的最低点，惟午盘后开始回弹，在1551点费氏支持线以上挂收，按日下跌6.26点或0.4%。综指当前的支持水平继续是1551点的费氏线，而阻力水平却是14、21、31天综合加权移动平均线（Exponential Moving Average – EMA）及1568点的费氏线。
如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量周四微增1%，而成交量也继续处于40天的成交量平均线以上。虽说若成交量能保持在40天VMA以上表示市场的交投已经达到足够的水平，但是由于周四下跌股项明显多过上升的股项，这表示周四的卖压比资金流入的购兴来得强。
如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）依然处于30%水平以下的短期弱势区域里，这表示综指短期走势还是偏弱的，直到随机指标能成功的上扬突破30%水平为止。
总的来说，综指自跌破L1的上升趋势线后，短期走势逐渐偏弱，再加上区域股市也对美国当前面临的债务问题也出现了敏感的反应，因此综指暂时未有转强的讯号。以技术而言，只要综指继续在14、21、31天EMA动态阻力线遇阻的话，那短期的技术展望将是偏弱的。综指下一道支持水平落在1500点的整数水平。
祝你好运
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